Fantasy Baseball: Scouting the Waiver Wire — Week 11

It’s time to start thinking about making moves to solidify your spot at the top, begin the long slog up the standings or potentially pack it in and build for the future. Part of the focus this week will be to identify trade targets to help you on the pitching side. An important reminder – if statistics told the whole story then computers would run your fantasy team and the smack talk in your league would be much more boring. Take these statistics as an attempt (a far from definitive one) to identify some targets. There may be other qualitative items which can either amplify or diminish the target for you.

American League Waiver Wire

Catcher

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim recalled prospect Hank Conger (4%) from AAA when Bobby Wilson (0%) was put on the DL with a concussion. Conger will likely get the lion’s share of the starts behind the plate until either Wilson or Chris Iannetta (15%) return from the DL. Iannetta is healing faster than expected from his wrist surgery so Conger’s time up may short. Conger’s has always been a fantastic on base man in the minors with a little bit of power. He could be a useful stash for the second half if Iannetta’s injury lingers.

The Detroit Tigers placed Alex Avila (88%) on the DL this week and as expected Gerald Laird (2%) will move into the starting role. Laird’s skill set is limited, but in two catcher leagues, his regular playing time could be useful.

The Kansas City Royals reported that Salvador Perez (18%) will start his rehab assignment on Thursday June 7^th. I expect him to take at least ten days (and likely the full 30 days) on his assignment so we could see him back by the middle to end of June. He’s a factor in two catcher leagues.

Hopefully, you were able to deal for Mike Napoli (99%) of the Texas Rangers when I mentioned his cold streak a couple of weeks ago. He’s back to his powerful hitting ways.

Corner infielder

Brandon Moss (1%) was recalled this week as Kila Ka’aihue (3%) was designated for assignment. Moss was immediately installed as the starting first base for the hapless A’s offense (Josh Reddick (98%) notwithstanding). It will be interesting to see how long Moss is the starting first baseman as Ka’ahuie was given about a week before being DFA’d. Moss has some big league experience, but has never been able to capitalize on his opportunities. He’s never played first base until this year in the minors, but I imagine he will get a little bit of a chance to show what he can do. He’s an add in AL-only leagues only. The A’s do have Daric Barton (1%) floating around at AAA who is currently hitting .370/.528/.741 at AAA Sacramento.

Middle infielder

Brian Roberts’ (20%) rehab assignment for the Baltmore Orioles is set to expire on Tuesday June 12. He has not had a set back with his concussion symptoms and I expect him to be reinstated at the top of the lineup immediately, but will get more time off than a full time player. He’s a must add in AL-only and deeper leagues. Monitor him in shallower leagues.

Ben Zobrist (98%) homered twice for the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday night. Could he finally be breaking out of his season long slump? He’s been one of the unluckiest hitters in the league and has maintained his walk rate so he seems due for a turn around. Check with your league’s owner to see if he is fed up with Zobrist and willing to deal.

Trevor Plouffe (16%) is starting to do a bit more than hit HRs for the Minnesota Twins and could be solidifiying his hold on the third base job. Power is still his calling card, but could be reaching viability in some shallower leagues.

Outfield

Quintin Berry (21%) is going to stay in the majors for the Detroit Tigers and will be relegated to the fourth outfielder role as Austin Jackson (98%) returns from the DL on Saturday. The real decision for Detroit will occur when Andy Dirks (35%) returns from his Achilles injury. Dirks is expected to return around mid-June. Berry has cooled considerably (.136 over his last five games) so I can now see Dirks being reinstated to full time left fielder and Berry being sent back to AAA. Berry was a nice story, but the Tigers didn’t spend all of that money in the offseason to enjoy nice stories.

I don’t usually recommend Oakland Athletics players who are hitting below .200, but Coco Crisp (32%) looks to finally be heating up (four hits in his last nine at bats including a home run). It has been a lost season for Crisp so far as he struggled with an inner ear issue for the first two months of the season. He looks to be fully healed and his mix of power and speed are useful in almost any league. He did lead the AL in stolen bases last year with 49 (though he played in the most games in a season for him since 2007).

Michael Saunders (33%) has been Mercury-hot the past two weeks and finally earned a trip up the batting order for the Seattle Mariners. Saunders was rated the #30 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America prior to the 2010 season. He’s still just 24 years old so there is some development time left for him. He’s always had less power than his 6’ 4” frame would suggest. However, perhaps this regular playing time has led to further development. He’s got an intriguing mix of power and speed and is a shallow mixed league target now.

Ben Revere (16%) is hitting .413 over the last 14 days. During that time he also has six stolen bases. However, he offers nothing else as 17 of his 19 hits are singles. He probably can’t keep this contact rate up, but could be a good replacement for Quintin Berry.

Lorenzo Cain (28%) is headed back to the doctor to see why his recovery has been so slow. Could we see Wil Myers (24%) (eligible at catcher in Yahoo! leagues) up to play center field for the Kansas City Royals?

Starting Pitcher

We are now just over one third of the way through the season and it is time to look at another friendly table via our friends at Fangraphs. The table below (data is as of June  7) shows all pitchers in the American League who qualify for the ERA title with a positive value for ERA minus SIERA, sorted by ERA minus SIERA. The hope is that by examining some of the pitchers with variances between actual and expected ERAs we can find waiver wire gems or trade targets. There are myriad other statistics that could be used (and should be if you have access), but I’m going to keep it relatively simple. The column E-F shows ERA minus FIP and the column E-S shows ERA minus SIERA.

I will take a look at three of the more intriguing names on the list.

Max Scherzer (92%) is one of two enigmas in the rotation for the Detroit Tigers (Rick Porcello (31%) being the other). We will use his player page at Fangraphs to see if we can find anything to explain the variance in SIERA to ERA. The first thing that jumps out is his inflated BABIP of .378, 60 points higher than his career average. Beyond BABIP, his HR/FB% is at 18.1%. His career average is 11.7% so this will likely normalize over time. There isn’t anything else that looks out of line. Those two items to point toward a likely improvement for Scherzer and he is a high risk, high reward trade target. His owner is likely out of contention and may be looking to rebuild. He would be a good target if you can take on the risk. He’s much more attractive in a league with a large bench.

Clay Buchholz (75%) threw a shut out this week so perhaps he’s already started on his road to recovery. Again, off to his Fangraphs player page to see what we can see. Like Scherzer, we see an abnormally high HR/FB% which will normalize over time. His BABIP is a bit higher than career norms, but not too outrageous. We will likely see a drop over time here as well. His K/9 rate is down about 1 over the last couple of years which is worrisome. I believe he will bounce back a bit, and Marc Normandin did note how improved Buchholz has been lately and is optimistic that he has turned the corner. I’m not as optimistic, but I do believe he’ll be worth a target in most leagues.

Gavin Floyd (56%) is a boring pitcher. He’s 62-61 over his career. His ERA generally hovers around four. His career K/9 rate is exactly seven. He is not likely a pitcher you target in a draft. Again, we see another player with an elevated home run rate. Floyd does pitch in a hitter’s park so his rebound will likely not be as big as the secondary numbers suggest. Tread lightly if dealing for him.

It is also intriguing to see the wide variation in FIP and SIERA for some pitchers (Max Scherzer, Clay Buchholz and Ervin Santana (80%) for example). That is why it is important to use multiple filters and understand what each statistic measures and what it does not.

The Boston Red Sox demoted Daniel Bard (28%) to AAA to work through his “issues” as a starter. Bard was certainly not pleased. The Sox brass said that it will be a quick trip and he’d be back soon. His role when he returns is undecided. I imagine part of that decision process will hinge on Daisuke Matsuzaka’s (20%) performance in the rotation. I side with many of the scouting people who say that Bard cannot succeed as a starter for a variety of reasons. Do not be surprised if Bard is moved back into the bullpen either in a setup role or as a closer. I don’t see closer as an issue at this point as Alfredo Aceves (76%) has been rock solid since his early season struggles.

I see the roles playing out this way – Dice-K will stay in the rotation, Aceves will stay as the closer and Bard will slide into the setup role he was comfortable with last year. The belief is based more on Bard’s comfort level than my belief in Dice-K. I can’t see the Red Sox moving Dice-K to the bullpen. I understand the argument that you’d rather have Bard pitching six effective innings every five days than one or two innings every other day. However, Bard hasn’t been effective and doesn’t have any history in the minors of being effective as a starter.

Derek Holland’s (87%) stomach issues have led to him being placed on the DL with a shoulder issue. Now, I’m not a doctor nor have I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express recently, but I don’t think the stomach and shoulder are connected. Holland’s MRI results were available Friday and came back clean with no structural damage. It looks like he’ll try to recover from the stomach issues and build back his shoulder strength so I see him out about one month.

In the interim, the Texas Rangers have placed Alexi Ogando (45%) into the rotation with a start on Sunday. The long term solution is likely Roy Oswalt (68%) who struggled in his first start at AAA. However, there was also discussion of pulling Scott Feldman (4%) (who I foolishly recommended last week) from the rotation so Ogando could be in the rotation longer than expected. I’d bid rather aggressively on Ogando because I could see him staying in the rotation for the remainder of the season. I’m still not sold on Oswalt as being more than league average when he makes it to Arlington.

Relief Pitcher

Tom Wilhelmsen (28%) picked up the save (his third) in the Seattle Mariners combined no-hitter this week. His current understudy (and deposed closer) Brandon League (48%) picked up the hold in front of him. I still believe League gets a shot to reclaim the closer role. However, League is a free agent at the end of the year so the Mariners could stick with Wilhelmsen (less than $500,000 salary this year) to attempt to develop a cheaper replacement for League ($5,000,000 this year) next year. League still has value for fantasy players looking for holds as he has three over the last seven days.

Brian Fuentes (37%) blew a save in Fuentes-esque fashion Friday night. He is not made to be a closer and it’s time to look and see who else might move into that role. The Oakland Athletics have two options – Grant Balfour (30%), who held the spot at the beginning of the season and Ryan Cook (30%) a 24-year old who has shone all season long in the bullpen.

Grant Balfour was removed from the closer role in mid-May and since then in 13 1/3 innings he’s pitched to a 2.03 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 12 Ks, but eight walks. Those eight walks give me pause in recommending him as a speculative closer in Oakland.

Ryan Cook is the other option available in the bullpen. He was converted to a reliever in 2011 in the minors and picked up 19 saves across two levels. So, he has some experience in the role. This article sums up a lot of the argument for Cook as closer. Moreover, the A’s would be well served to trying to develop a young closer instead of paying for one on the open market. Cook does have a high walk total (15 in 25 innings) so if hitters figure out how to make better contact, he could be in a lot of trouble. I think Cook is the speculative play in Oakland and should be acquired in all leagues this week. I do not see Fuentes keeping the role. (Late Saturday Bob Melvin said he now has three closers – Cook, Balfour and Fuentes – and that situation will dictate who is used).

Finally, a great story as the Oakland Athletics promoted Sean Doolittle (1%) from AAA into their bullpen.  Doolittle was a 1^st round pick (supplemental) of the A’s in 2007 out of Virginia where he both hit and pitched. He struggled with knee injuries in 2009 and 2010. He started throwing bullpen session in 2011 as a means of distraction. The A’s saw something and converted him to pitcher. In 25 IP at three levels this year he struck out 48 batters. In his major league debut, he struck out three of the four Texas Rangers batters he faced. He probably won’t be put into high leverage situations in the near future, but could be a great source of strikeouts in leagues with innings limits. And, Brian Fuentes isn’t exactly Mariano Rivera.

National League Waiver Wire

Catcher

Steve Clevenger (3%) has returned for the Cubs and I expect him to be the starting catcher for the remainder of the season (even when Geovanny Soto returns). He’s a definite add in two-catcher leagues.

Martin Maldonado (0%) has picked up the majority of at bats for the Milwaukee Brewers after Jonathan Lucroy’s (66%) injury. It looks like George Kottaras (6%) cannot shake his hamstring injury. Maldonado offers little of interest for fantasy players.

Corner infielder

Pablo Sandoval (98%) has returned from the DL earlier than expected. I’ve seen lots of complaints about Sandoval’s lack of fitness. I’m not sure when we’ve ever seen him in great shape and I believe the Giants activated him early to get him back with the major league team so they can push him away from the clubhouse spread more frequently. He’s a fantasy star and should be active in all leagues for next week.

Gaby Sanchez (30%) is returning from AAA to the Miami Marlins. He will immediately move into the starting lineup. He had a .976 OPS during his time at AAA. Sanchez is who he is.  He won’t hit as much as you’d like for a first baseman, but he’s a good second tier option at the position in most leagues. He’s probably a .270 hitter with 15-20 home run power. That’s nice, but not usually what you are looking for out of your first baseman.

Ty Wigginton (33%) continues to hit for the Philadelphia Phillies. He likely has multi-position eligibility in your league. Regular playing time is guaranteed as long as he can hit and as long as Ryan Howard stays on the DL. There isn’t a clear return date for Howard so you may want to get “Wiggy” with it in most leagues.

Chipper Jones (46%) looks like he is ready to return from the DL either Sunday or Monday. He’s a great pickup for daily leagues as he can’t stay healthy for long periods of time.

Middle infielder

Jed Lowrie (92%) continues to mash for the Houston Astros with three HRs and six RBIs over the last seven games. Speed is the only tool he lacks, but will be a good source of power as long as e stays healthy which he’s never been able to do.

Ryan Theriot (10%) has been the second best player in one of my leagues over the last week. I don’t care how small a sample that is, he is hot. Grab him now and know that he will drop off a bit. However, he should be a source of runs and stolen bases while not harming your batting average.  The San Francisco Giants are still waiting for Freddy Sanchez (4%) to return and I don’t know when (if ever) he will be back. Theriot could be the second baseman for the rest of the season. Joaquin Arias (3%) and Emmanuel Burriss (1%) are no threat to his playing time.

The Philadelphia Phillies lost Freddy Galvis (14%) to what may be a season-ending back injury. Galvis had been playing surprisingly well for the disappointing Phillies. Initially, Galvis will be replaced by Mike Fontenot (1%). Fontenot has always shown a bit of power for a middle infielder and will likely hit around .260 with no speed. He’s a fine pick up in NL-only leagues and could keep the position if Chase Utley (90%) does not make a successful return. The will be less likely to look outside of the organization for help at second should they stay in the basement of the NL East.

Outfield

Allen Craig (83%) is back and raking for the St. Louis Cardinals. If he is on the waiver wire in your league, he shouldn’t be. He should be owned in all leagues (until he gets hurt again). He will bat in the middle of the order for the Cardinals and is a great source of power.

Is Jason Heyward (98%) breaking out of his slump for the Atlanta Braves? I do not believe so. He is too inconsistent to start in weekly leagues. He still has not solved lefthanders as his line for this year is .197/.260/.324. His development seems to have stalled. If I owned him, I’d try to play up his big week and see what you can get for him in a trade.

Alfonso Soriano (68%) seems to be audition for a team other than the Chicago Cubs. He has four home runs over his last seven games. He can still put the ball over the fence though he’s going to be a batting average risk for the remainder of the season.

Starting Pitcher

Similar to the American League, we have a table of National League pitchers to wade through and find that diamond in the rough.

As with the American League, I will take a look at three of the more intriguing names in the NL.

Tim Lincecum (97%) – he was seen as a top 10 pitcher in the NL coming into this year. He has pitched like anything but that caliber of pitcher. His LOB% (or strand rate) is much lower than usual for him so this points to a bounce back if he can get to league average.  However, in his batted ball profile, we see that his ground ball rate has dropped and it seems they have been converted into line drives which implies he is being hit harder than usual. Moreover, his fastball speed is down two miles per hour from last year. I do not know if it is an injury, fatigue or a mechanical issue, but whatever the problem is, I do not see Lincecum as a good trade target for this season.

Adam Wainwright (96%) – Wainwright came into the season for the St. Louis Cardinals as the de facto ace even though he missed all of last year after Tommy John surgery. Returnees from that surgery are usually late to get their control back which will show up as a higher WHIP in the fantasy realm. Wainwright has a ton of red flags from a lower LOB% than usual, to a higher HR/FB rate, but an increased GB% with a lower average fastball speed. It looks like Wainwright will be up and down for the rest of the year, but the number of “up” starts will outnumber the “down”. Target him especially in dynasty leagues, if his owner is fed up with his inconsistency. He will recover in the second half.

Zack Greinke (98%) – the numbers say that Greinke’s super season could get even better! A deeper look shows a mixed bag. Greinke’s BABIP is absurdly high at .357, but his HR/FB is absurdly low at just 4.8%. One explanation could be the reintroduction of the cutter to his repertoire. He looks to have nearly abandoned his changeup and added a cutter which is nearly thrown at the same speed as his fastball. Generally, cutters lead to more groundballs (which we see in his numbers) and wouldn’t directly affect the HR/FB %.  Looking at historical data shows that Greinke’s ERA generally tracks very closely to his FIP with the exception of his two most recent seasons. With all of this said, I can see Greinke improving even more and finishing as a top 5 pitcher in the entire major leagues.

The St. Louis Cardinals lost Jaime Garcia (78%) to the DL with what was called at different times an elbow, shoulder and hip injury. It looks like there is “moderate” damage to his shoulder. In redraft leagues, I would drop him altogether. I don’t think he’ll have any value the rest of this season as shoulder injuries are notoriously difficult to recover from.

Joe Kelly (2%) was announced as the rotation replacement over Brandon Dickson (0%) and top prospect Shelby Miller (23%) (who has struggled all year at AAA). I will be honest. I had never heard of Joe Kelly until this week. A quick look at his minor league numbers shows a significant drop in K/9 rate as he hit AAA this year (though it was frighteningly consistent prior to this year). His 2.86 ERA in AAA doesn’t look like it is supported by enough stuff to be successful in the majors.

Relief Pitcher

So, the San Diego Padres have decided to convert Andrew Cashner (10%) back to the starting rotation. Cashner entered the season as the heir apparent to Huston Street. Cashner will start this weekend and then head to the minors to get stretched out for a return to the rotation. Any San Diego Padres’ starter is intriguing due to their home field. Cashner had some success in the minors as a starter, but it was assumed his stuff translated better to the bullpen at the major league level. I’m a bit dubious of his ability to make it work as a starter, but Petco gives me some pause. He’s certainly valuable in NL-only leagues, but I’d wait in deeper leagues to see how he does at the AAA level first.

Santiago Casilla (82%) looks to be fully healthy for the San Francisco Giants and is reinstalled as the closer as his replacement Sergio Romo (20%) now battles a minor knee injury.

I will reiterate my recommendation from last week for the Atlanta Braves Eric O’Flaherty (2%) in holds leagues. He finished tied for sixth last year in holds and seems to be taking advantage of his high leverage opportunities.

Thanks for your time this week and drop me a comment with any questions you might have especially if you are evaluating trades at this time of year. All of my previous columns can be found at here.

Chris Garosi is a contributor for District Sports Page. One of his favorite sports memories is witnessing Wilson Alvarez’s no-hitter at Memorial Stadium in 1991. Chris has played fantasy sports since the pre-Internet days and participates in any league for any sport to which he’s invited. You can follow him on Twitter at @chrisgarosi.