We were spot on for everyone we recommended last week except the Chiefs. And the Jamaal Charles injury certainly wasn’t expected. But, we’re back again this week to pick again for Week 6.
Each week, we’ll publish a column with a look at the best choices for the week in your Survivor Pool. We’ll also identify a sleeper team if you want to risk it for the week. And finally, we’ll try to pick those teams to avoid so you can live to see another day.
So, what does Week 6 hold?
Bye week: Dallas Cowboys, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Survivor Pool – Week 6 selections
Here is what we have for a top 10 from Office Football Pool and Yahoo! as of late Thursday:
There are two big favorites who if you have them, you should take them. But, you most likely don’t have them. So, how do we navigate the potential land mines?
If you’ve never read my Survivor columns previously, I can’t stress this rule enough. I (almost never) save a team for later in the season. There is too much volatility in the NFL and the best information you have is for the upcoming week. Trying to predict performance in future weeks is nearly impossible.
Here are my choices for Week 6 in order of preference:
- New England Patriots – This is the narrative game of the week. The Pats go into Indy to demolish the reason they Tom Brady and Robert Kraft had to spend a lot of time in court this summer. Beyond that, the Colts have a QB who isn’t healthy (or may be Matt Hasselbeck) and a running game that relies on 89-year old Frank Gore. I give the Pats an 82% chance of winning.
- Green Bay Packers – The Chargers enter Lambeau Field feeling pretty bad off a last second loss to the Steelers. The Packers come in believing that their offense isn’t clicking on all cylinders. I trust that the Pack will renew their focus on execution and should win handily at home. I give the Packers a 78% chance of winning.
Now, I know you probably don’t have those two teams left so let’s dig a little deeper.
- New York Jets – The Jets are facing a Washington team that will struggle to run on the Jets and have a chance at completing more passes to the Jets than to their WRs. Washington will be without their starting center and starting left tackle. And the Jets get Sheldon Richardson back from suspension to add even more problems for Washington. I give the Jets a 75% chance of winning.
- Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks head home without a clear direction on offense, but a renewed vigor on defense. The Panthers are in off their bye, but are really a one dimensional offense. Well, maybe half a dimension – they can throw the ball to the TE. They can’t run it (well, outside of Cam Newton) and I challenge you to name their starting WRs. With Marshawn Lynch back for Seattle, we think the offense gets back on track. I give the Seahawks a 74% chance of winning.
- Philadelphia Eagles – I think the Eagles have found their way – throw the ball down the field. And the Giants have a banged up offense and go on the road to a hostile environment on Monday night. I give the Eagles a 70% chance of winning.
Other teams I like this week: None
As for the avoid list, I noted on Twitter last night that you should stay away from the Atlanta Falcons so hopefully you did. In general, I pass on the Thursday night games in Survivor – just too much volatility in the short week. But, we need another one to avoid – so I’d move off of the Denver Broncos on the road to Cleveland. Peyton Manning is a shell of himself and the Browns have flung the ball around the yard a lot the last couple of weeks. They are the type of high volatility team I want to avoid.
If you get bonus points for picking an underdog, I’d think about the San Francisco 49ers at home to the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens will be without Steve Smith, Sr again. They may be without Justin Forsett. Their defense is a sieve. They travel west. No thanks.
Just a reminder, if you ever wanted to see what Vegas thinks each team’s “chances of winning” are, use this handy little converter to transform money lines into win percentages. You can also create a spreadsheet if you’d like (or use this one – scroll to the bottom) to do it for fun at home. This percentage chance to win is another quick way to gauge win expectations for each team each week. You can get a variety of money lines here or here.
Chris Garosi is a contributor for District Sports Page. One of his favorite sports memories is witnessing Wilson Alvarez’s no-hitter at Memorial Stadium in 1991. Chris has played fantasy sports since the pre-Internet days and participates in any league for any sport to which he’s invited. He even won an XFL fantasy league. Really. His work can be seen at TheFantasyFix.com, Scout Fantasy and RotoCurve. He’s even available to you via DraftValet. You can follow him on Twitter at @chrisgarosi