Fantasy Football: Week 1 Notes and Survivor Pool

The first game of the new season is in the books, but there is still a lot to be done before week one. I’ll take a quick look at players whose stock has risen or fallen since my last column. The big takeaway from the last week is that more and more backfields seem to be a muddled mix of middling mudders. We’ll see if there is any value to be had. Finally, we’ll review the Survivor Pool picks for the weekend.

Let’s look at some players who are up or down in the most recent trend reports from MockDraftCentral.com (I’ll shorten to MDC for the remainder of the column). I’m looking at absolute movement up or down and not percentage change.

Quarterback

Up: Russell Wilson is being anointed as Cam Newton 2.0. I like him as a QB2 in most leagues (he could be a starter in 14 team leagues), but he’s not going to be Cam Newton. Newton looks to be a once in a decade mix of athleticism, strength and skill. Don’t go overboard with your affection for Wilson, but he’s certainly worth a bench spot.

As an aside, I was thinking about last year’s draft and I remember how many questions there were surrounding the 49ers Alex Smith. Now, just one year later, we hear no rumblings. Has Smith really solidified his job? If not, Colin Kaepernick is an intriguing player to keep on your watch list for the second half of the season.

Down: Mark Sanchez is the biggest faller on the QB side of the ledger. I can only assume this is related to his inability to lead the Jets to a TD in the preseason. Or that he’s not very good at quarterbacking in the NFL. Or both. He does not need to be drafted in anything more than two QB leagues.

Carson Palmer has also dropped from the ninth round (in 10 team leagues) to the twelfth round. I think he has value this year as I imagine they Raiders should be a relatively high powered offense. This drop may have more to do with a combination of confidence in Darren McFadden and concern over the health of his receivers.

Running back

Up: For reasons that escape me, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Rashard Mendenhall has moved up 37 spots in the last week. Sure, he’s “healthy”, but the Steelers backfield situation is starting to resemble the Washington Redskins. Isaac Redman can’t seem to stay healthy and I don’t think he’s worth a roster spot. Mendehnall came back earlier than expected from an ACL tear, but he won’t play week one. Moreover, when he is back he’ll be behind a suspect line and I doubt he makes an impact before week six.

Their backfield mate Jonathan Dwyer has also moved up at MDC and I think he has a better shot at long term value in standard leagues than either Redman or Mendenhall.  Dwyer is more similar in size to Mendenhall and has that power back look that the Steelers value.

The potential PPR sleeper in that backfield is Chris Rainey. He’s a jitterbug out of Florida who could be a gold mine in leagues which value return yardage as he is now slated to return both punts and kickoffs.

The other back moving up draft boards is rookie Robert Turbin for the Seattle Seahawks. This move is due mostly to starter Marshawn Lynch’s back injury. Lynch is questionable for week one and Turbin is a necessary handcuff at this point for Lynch owners.

Down: Most of the RBs dropping in the ADP at MDC are those who have been release (Tim Hightower, James Starks) or those who are hurt (Isaac Redman and Jahvid Best). Perhaps the most interesting RB name is Ronnie Hillman of the Denver Broncos. Hillman was thought to be the backup for Willis McGahee. However, it seems the Broncos have other ideas and Knowshown Moreno was elevated to the number two role this week. I still think Hillman has value this year, but it looks like it will be a longer road to climb. He’s safe to drop in shallower leagues.

Wide Receiver

Up: Danny Amendola of the St. Louis Rams has jumped 36 spots on average in the last week according to MDC. Amendola has a chance to be a PPR star as the go-to target in the Rams’ offense. The rest of the receiving corps did not show much in the preseason so Amendola may be the one to carry the load.

Brandon LaFell of the Carolina Panthers also flew up draft boards last week. Cam Newton has been talking him up all preseason. LaFell could benefit early with single coverage as teams roll coverage to Steve Smith. If LaFell succeeds, the league will adjust and it will be interesting to see how LaFell adjusts back. LaFell should enjoy early success, but long term growth will be determined by the adjustments he makes.

Our old friend Randy Moss also saw a big jump last week. The 49ers have him listed as the number two WR on the current depth chart. I think if he stays mentally focused he has a chance to contribute and be a WR3/Flex option for the season. The problem will be if he can stay focused while not being the focal point of the offense. My guess is he won’t, but he’s a great flier in the end game of a draft.

Down: Not a lot of interesting names on the down list. However, at the top of the list is Vincent Brown of the San Diego Chargers. It’s odd to see him drop so much in a week since nothing changed for him other than he’s been placed on injured reserve. But, remember there is a new rule this year where a team can designate that a player may return from the IR any time after six weeks on it. Brown is that player for the Chargers. If you can stash him, I would and plan on reaping a big reward in the second half of the season.

Tight End

Up: No TEs showed a gain in draft position this week.

Short: One of the biggest drops is from the Buffalo Bills’ Scott Chandler.  This report paints a much different picture of Chandler. I saw Chandler play a bit this preseason against the Washington Redskins and he is much more athletic than I remember. He made a great catch in traffic over the middle. I think he has a shot to be a good bye week fill-in or maybe sneak into the top ten of TEs if the Bills offense clicks.

Kicker

Long: No kicker had a gain in the MDC draft rankings this week.

Short: Alex Henery took a huge tumble this week and I do not see any reason he should. If he’s still available late grab him as the Eagles offense should be a top 10 offense and offer Henery plenty of chances to score.

Also, in case you missed it, Garrett Hartley won the starting kicker job for the New Orleans Saints with the release of John Kasay. Hartley has a big leg, but struggles with consistency. However, he’s tough to pass up with the potency of the Saints offense.

Defense

Long: The Chicago Bears and Houston Texans have made big jumps this week most likely due to the weak opponents each faces in Week one. Both defenses should be drafted in all leagues as each has the playmaking ability to succeed long term.

Short: Oddly, the Detroit Lions defense has plummeted down the rankings even though they play a poor St. Louis Rams team in the first week. The only issue I see with the Lions is injuries in the secondary. There may be concern over how the team will hold up with the poor secondary play and that the game could turn into a shootout. The Lions are at home and should win, but there is a chance that they give up enough points that their defense isn’t playable in fantasy.

Survivor – Week 1 Update

Below you will see the current top 10 selections from Office Football Pool and ESPN. Not a lot of difference here and that’s to be expected as most are playing it safe this first week. As you can see, some folks are already out and we haven’t hit Sunday of the first week!

Week 1 selections

No changes from my last column. I will stick with these three in the order provided and I’ll stay away from the Saints. There is some concern that Arian Foster won’t play in Week one, but I’ll stick with the Texans even if it is Ben Tate starting.

Week 1 is the toughest of all weeks. We are coming off of preseason where the information is poor. In general, we have an idea of who the best and worst teams are, but we have no on-field evidence to prove it. So, for Week 1, I go with the biggest favorites entering the week with preference to big home favorites. My three choices for Week 1 are:

1. Houston Texans – The Texans welcome the woeful (on paper) Miami Dolphins for week one. The Dolphins have a huge talent deficit and I do not believe they have an offense that can overcome the Texans swarming defense. It is a tough spot for Ryan Tannehill to debut. I give the Texans a 75% chance to win. The Texans are my choice for this week.
2. Detroit Lions – The Lions still don’t seem to have a running game which always makes the Lions a dicey selection for survivor pools. They are prone to comebacks as they cannot salt away early big leads. That said their opponent, the St. Louis Rams were awful last year.  Their defense is improved, but I don’t think they have enough offensive fire power to keep up with the Lions. I give the Lions a 70% chance of winning.
3. Chicago Bears – The Bears are a big favorite in Andrew Luck’s NFL debut for the Indianapolis Colts. And Luck is what gives me pause over putting the Bears at the top spot. He looks to be someone who could lead a team to victory on an given Sunday. I give the Bears a 65% chance of winning.

If you get some sort of bonus for choosing a road team, I might take a look at the Atlanta Falcons in Kansas City. Kansas City is tough place to play and the Falcons are a poorer team away from the dome. However, the Chiefs look like they will be banged up on defense and could be susceptible to the high powered attack of the Falcons. I give the Falcons a 60% chance of winning.

I would also stay away from the New Orleans Saints as a big favorite against the Washington Redskins. I’d like to see one week of the Saints without Sean Payton on the sidelines before I put my neck on the line for them.

Thanks for reading and let me know if you have any questions you need answer.

- Chris (@chrisgarosi)