July 24, 2014

Fantasy Football: Week 10 – Survivor Pool and Thursday Night Game Preview

Week nine allowed most of us to skate through to see another week in Survivor. The only team in the top 10 to lose last week was Washington taking 3.3% of entries out of Office Football Pool (though it took almost 11% out of my largest pool). It’s been a bit too easy the last three weeks. I have to think a big surprise is on the horizon to take out a large number of entries.

I’ve got a quick preview of Thursday’s game below as well.

Bye week: Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Washington

Survivor Pool – Week 10 selections

Here is what we have for a top 10 from Office Football Pool and ESPN as of late Wednesday night:

Office Football Pool

Yahoo! Survival Football

Team

Picks

Team

Picks

1

Pittsburgh Steelers

55.10%

1

Pittsburgh Steelers

63.75%

2

San Francisco 49ers

14.70%

2

San Francisco 49ers

11.96%

3

New England Patriots

10.40%

3

New England Patriots

6.55%

4

Baltimore Ravens

8.40%

4

Baltimore Ravens

5.05%

5

Seattle Seahawks

4.80%

5

Indianapolis Colts

3.97%

6

Miami Dolphins

2.60%

6

Seattle Seahawks

3.12%

7

Indianapolis Colts

1.60%

7

Denver Broncos

2.53%

8

Denver Broncos

0.90%

8

Miami Dolphins

1.13%

9

New York Giants

0.70%

9

New York Giants

1.04%

10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0.30%

10

Atlanta Falcons

0.18%

We have two double digit favorites to choose from at the top of the pile. Is there any concern with either of them? Where does the value lie? What if neither of the big favorites is available?

My early picks for this week are below (my final column will be up Sunday):

  1. San Francisco 49ers – Your pool may vary, but the value play is San Francisco. There are few players who have the 49ers available and they are in the same neighborhood in terms of a chance of winning this week. The concern with San Francisco is they have scored only 16 points total in their last two home games (one a loss to the Giants). The Rams (coming off a bye) are due to get playmaker Danny Amendola back which makes the Rams offense dangerous. I believe the 49ers defense is too much for the Rams. I give the 49ers an 81% of winning the game.
  2. Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers are hot. The Chiefs are cold. The Steelers have injuries on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs are awful on both sides of the ball whether they are healthy or injured. The Chiefs are led by professional turnover machine Matt Cassel at QB. The Chiefs give every team they face so many extra opportunities with those turnovers that the Steelers should be able to overcome the Chiefs. I give the Steelers an 85% of winning the game.
  3. Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens are a far different team (and Joe Flacco a far different QB) at home than on the road. The Raiders may have a guy named for a country in Asia as their lead RB this week. The Raiders are coming east to face the Ravens for a one o’clock game. I give the Ravens a 75% chance of winning.
  4. Seattle Seahawks – Oh, the Seahawks love to be at home as well. The Link is a tough place to play. The Seahawks have already defeated the Patriots there. Their marauding defense should be able to confuse Mark Sanchez and force the Jets to throw. I give the Seahawks a 71% chance to win.
  5. New England Patriots –  I have no rational reason for moving the Patriots down to number five other than they’ve burned me once and come close to burning me a second time. The Bills are off their bye and do have dynamic offensive weapons. However, I do see the Patriots winning this game without too much of an issue. I give the Patriots a 70% chance to win.

Other teams I like early in the week: None

As for the avoid list, I doubt there will be too many people on teams other than the 49ers and Steelers. If you can’t use one of the five I’ve listed above, I would stay away from Indianapolis Colts off the short week in Jacksonville. The Colts had an emotional win last week and are going to a Jaguars team that hasn’t looked as bad as its talent suggests.

If you get bonus points for picking an underdog, I’d take the New Orleans Saints against the Atlanta Falcons. The Saints have been bad, but they are at home against at Falcons team which may be looking past them as the Saints have struggled mightily for much of the season.

Just a reminder, if you ever wanted to see what Vegas thinks each team’s “chances of winning” are, use this handy little converter to transform money lines into win percentages. You can also create a spreadsheet if you’d like (or use this one – scroll to the bottom) to do it for fun at home. This percentage chance to win is another quick way to gauge win expectations for each team each week. You can get a variety of money lines here or here.

Thursday night game preview – Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Indianapolis

Andrew Luck struggles on the road, but I’m not sure I’d sit him for this week unless you have a fantastic option. Luck’s not throwing for 400 yards this week, but he should be a low-end QB1.

Vick Ballard should be a solid RB2 this week.

Donnie Avery may be back so watch the injury report. If not, then T.Y. Hilton becomes a flex option.

Dwayne Allen is the only TE as Coby Fleener is still injured. I like him as a TE1 again.

Jacksonville

Blaine Gabbert has looked solid the past couple of weeks. I like him as a sneaky QB1 at home.

Rashad Jennings should have plenty of room to roam against the Colts porous defense. He’s an RB1 in my books.

Cecil Shorts is the man for the Jaguars. He did lose some targets to Laurent Robinson, but Shorts is a solid flex play.

The Jaguars defense could be a desperation play as I think the Colts will struggle on the road.

Chris Garosi is a contributor for District Sports Page. One of his favorite sports memories is witnessing Wilson Alvarez’s no-hitter at Memorial Stadium in 1991. Chris has played fantasy sports since the pre-Internet days and participates in any league for any sport to which he’s invited. He even won an XFL fantasy league. Really. You can follow him on Twitter at @chrisgarosi.

 

%d bloggers like this: