Week four of the NFL schedule welcomes the first byes of the season and the official officials. I was correct to go with Chicago and Dallas as my top two choices, but my third and fourth options (49ers and Saints) went out. Also, my team to avoid (Green Bay) came through even if they got a good bit of help in the loss from our unofficial officials.
In one pool, I’m in week three saw the end of the pool. We were down to two entries and they decided to chop the pot. In another pool, after three weeks we are down to just 15% of the original entries. It has been quite a season so far.
On bye this week: Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers
Survivor Pool – Week 4 selections
Last week the Saints and 49ers took out a good chunk of remaining pool entrants. So, for most of us, the pools are starting to get interesting.
Here is what we have for a top 10 from Office Football Pool and ESPN as of early Thursday:
|
Office Football Pool |
ESPN Eliminator Challenge |
|||||
|
Team |
Picks |
Team |
Picks |
|||
|
1 |
Baltimore Ravens |
56.80% |
1 |
Baltimore Ravens |
60.00% |
|
|
2 |
Houston Texans |
14.20% |
2 |
Arizona Cardinals |
6.10% |
|
|
3 |
Arizona Cardinals |
8.90% |
3 |
Houston Texans |
4.80% |
|
|
4 |
Atlanta Falcons |
8.20% |
4 |
Detroit Lions |
4.70% |
|
|
5 |
Denver Broncos |
3.80% |
5 |
Atlanta Falcons |
4.10% |
|
|
6 |
Green Bay Packers |
2.80% |
6 |
Denver Broncos |
3.60% |
|
|
7 |
New England Patriots |
1.30% |
7 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
3.40% |
|
|
8 |
Detroit Lions |
0.80% |
8 |
New England Patriots |
0.30% |
|
|
9 |
San Francisco 49ers |
0.70% |
9 |
Seattle Seahawks |
2.70% |
|
|
10 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
0.50% |
10 |
San Francisco 49ers |
2.20% |
|
A clear cut favorite is out there. Does it make sense to take them? Is there really that much of a difference between the top pick and the rest of the field? My early top 3 picks for the week (final column up Sunday):
- Baltimore Ravens – This is not the same case as the Patriots versus the Cardinals from earlier this season. The Ravens are a far superior team to the Browns. The Browns have shown very little this season to make me think they can keep up with the Ravens. I give Baltimore an 82% chance of winning this divisional match-up at home. Take the Ravens if you believe in “survive and advance.”
- Houston Texans – Now, we get into pot odds and does it make sense to take a lesser team in the off chance that the Ravens lose? If you have the Texans still available, this is the time to use them especially if you are in a pool where the picks look more like ESPN than Office Football Pool above. The Titans are a one dimensional offensive team and the Texans have a defender (in Jonathan Joseph) who can take away a portion of that dimension. I give the Texans a 78% chance of winning.
- Atlanta Falcons – The only reason I have them third is because Carolina will have had 10 days off to prepare for the Falcons. That said, the Falcons are very good at home and their passing attack looks unstoppable. The Panthers don’t have the weapons in the defensive backfield to match-up. I give the Falcons a 75% chance of winning.
I’d also watch the Cardinals this week to see if the Dolphins are without the services of Reggie Bush. If Bush is out, I could see pushing the Cardinals into the top three.
As for the avoid list, I’d lean away from the Denver Broncos. They are home against a Raiders team coming off of a big win. The Broncos may be without Willis McGahee which would be a big blow to Peyton Manning and put too much on his shoulders in my opinion.
If you get bonus points for picking an underdog, I’d look at the New York Giants on the road at Philadelphia. I know, I’m beating a dead horse picking against the Eagles and Michel Vick again, but I just don’t know how much longer Andy Reid can stay with Vick.
Just a reminder from last week, if you ever wanted to see what Vegas thinks each team’s “chances of winning” are, use this handy little converter to transform money lines into win percentages. You can also create a spreadsheet if you’d like (or use this one – scroll to the bottom) to do it for fun at home. This percentage chance to win is another quick way to gauge win expectations for each team each week. You can get a variety of money lines here or here.
Thursday night game injury update – Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Just a couple of quick highlights:
Baltimore
The Ravens are surprisingly healthy with only three players even listed on their injury report and only one at questionable or worse. The Ravens defense is not what it has been in years past as they have struggled to put the same pressure on the QB as in years previously. However, the Browns have not shown any particular aptitude on offense this season.
The Ravens defense is ranked 27th in total yards allowed at just over 400 yards per game. But a deeper look shows that they are fourth in per play rushing average (3.3 yards per attempt). The Ravens are just getting a lot of rushing attempts against them.
Cleveland Browns
Trent Richardson looks to be fully healed from his earlier knee surgery.
Mohamed Massaquoi is out for the Browns with a hamstring injury. It looks like Josh Gordon could see some more playing time, but isn’t a useful option in most leagues.
Chris Garosi is a contributor for District Sports Page. One of his favorite sports memories is witnessing Wilson Alvarez’s no-hitter at Memorial Stadium in 1991. Chris has played fantasy sports since the pre-Internet days and participates in any league for any sport to which he’s invited. He even won an XFL fantasy league. Really. You can follow him on Twitter at @chrisgarosi.