Fantasy Football: Week 5 Notes and Survivor Pool; Start ‘em and Sit ‘em

Week 5 started with one of the last unbeaten teams falling as the St. Louis Rams defeated the Arizona Cardinals. Kevin Kolb is likely in witness protection as I type this – it was a brutal night for him and the Cardinals will not be able to succeed if they cannot fix their offensive line problems.

Let’s take a look at who to start and sit this week. Also, there is a bit of a change to my Survivor Pool rankings as well.

Remember, I usually like to use Rotoworld’s rankings as a quick guide and then see where I can take advantage of lower or higher rankings. Follow along, as I read aloud. If you have questions, just leave a comment or send me a note on Twitter.

On bye this week: Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback                               

Up: Christian Ponder has been nicked up a bit this week, but his matchup is too juicy to sit him. He is a perfect bye week replacement for owners of Tony Romo or Matthew Stafford. Expect top 10 production out of Ponder against the lowly Tennessee Titans defense.

Andy Dalton also has an intriguing matchup against a Dolphins defense which has given up a ton of yards through the air, but has not allowed TDs. I think this is the week that the Dolphins defense breaks.

I expect Matt Ryan to be the highest scoring QB this week as the Redskins can’t stop anyone. That game should be a shootout.

Further down the list, I’d take a look at Alex Smith this week against a soft Buffalo Bills defense.  The Bills won’t be as porous as they were against the Patriots last week, but expect a top 12 performance for Smith this week.

Down: The Pittsburgh Steelers are due to get Troy Polamalu and James Harrison back in the lineup this week. That’s bad news for Michael Vick. I think the Steelers (coming off a bye) should be able to harass Vick into a performance which will be outside of the top 15.

Matt Schaub was solid last week in a great matchup. This week he walks into a matchup on Monday night against a Jets team which needs to win. Yes, Darrelle Revis is no longer out there, but the Jets are another week removed from his departure and should be adjusted. I see Schaub finishing outside the top 15 and would start Christian Ponder and Alex Smith over him.

I don’t see Cam Newton as a top 10 QB this week, but I’m not sure you bench him unless you have a great second option. I’d still start him over Ponder, but it’s going to be close between the two. However, the risk is likely not there to take Newton out of your lineup. The Seahawks defense will likely terrorize the Panthers offensive line, but I think Newton has the skills to turn some of that terror to joy.

Running back

Up: Push Reggie Bush into the top 5 in PPR leagues as the Cincinnati Bengals like to give receptions to RBs (as well as a healthy amount of rushing yards).

Willis McGahee faces a Patriots defense which has been very good against the run. Or have they? They have faced Chris Johnson, Ryan Williams, Ray Rice and Fred Jackson/C.J. Spiller (both coming off of injuries) in the first four weeks. Not exactly the 1927 Yankees of running backs with the exception of Ray Rice). And how did Ray Rice do? He ran for 101 yards, scored a TD and picked up five catches for 49 yards. Expect a top 10 performance from McGahee and if you are considering benching him in a two RB league where you can flex a RB/WR, don’t do it. Keep Willis in the lineup.

Trent Richardson moves into the top 8 for me this week with the news that Rocky Bernard is out for the New York Giants. Richardson is a true three down back and I like his matchup this week. The Giants line is great as a pass rushers, not as great against the run.

I’d start Alfred Morris as a top 5 option again this week. He’s for real. If I had the choice between him and Jamaal Charles this week, I’d go with Morris.

Down: Rashard Mendenhall is back this week for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but I’d wait a week to start him unless your team is decimated by injuries or bye week issues. I see his production as a low end flex for this week, but a low-end RB2 for the rest of the season.

The Chargers backfield is a mess right now. I’m not sure what Norv Turner is doing, but he clearly doesn’t play fantasy football. I’m not sure what you can count on from either Ryan Mathews or Jackie Battle this week. Kevin Acee said as much here on Twitter. The matchup is great, but I’d expect around top 20 production from both of them. For the rest of the season, I still see Mathews as a solid RB1 who makes a good trade target.

Chris Johnson was great last week against the vaunted Texans’ defense. He won’t be great this week against the Vikings defense. He just doesn’t seem to be the same player he was when he earned the moniker CJ2K. I see Johnson falling outside of the top 20 in production this week. If you can deal him I’d also look at doing that if someone believes he’s back.

In other backfield messes, I’d avoid Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller as it’s not clear where the touches will go and the 49ers will likely bottle up both of them.

No one should be starting Shonn Greene except in the deepest of leagues. Indeed, he should probably be on the waiver wire in most leagues. I even traded for him this week just so I could cut him. His matchup is awful against the Texans and I can’t see the Jets making any headway on the ground at all. I’d start Mendehnall, Jacquizz Rodgers, Kendall Hunter and maybe even Andre Brown (if you think the Giants go back towards more of a time share) over Greene.

This is not a note to take LeSean McCoy out of any lineup, but know that McCoy has a bit of a knee injury and the Steelers are getting healthier. I’d see McCoy’s production closer to ten than five this week. Also look for Bryce Brown to get a few more touches than normal and snag Brown as a handcuff if you have McCoy.

Wide Receiver

Up: I was wrong about Marques Colston so I will overreact and put him in in my top 10 this week. The Saints are back at home and they have to win at some point. Moreover, Lance Moore is out this week. The Saints aren’t going to win by running the ball, so Colston is the top option in New Orleans.

Brian Hartline will not duplicate his effort from last week, but he is a legitimate threat each and every week. The Cincinnati Bengals secondary still isn’t healthy. Start Hartline and expect a solid WR2 value.

James Jones has a fantastic matchup against the Colts this week. He played extensively when Greg Jennings went out with an injury. It also doesn’t look like Randall Cobb is a threat in two receiver sets so expect a full complement of snaps for Jones in a high-powered offense. I like Jones as a top 15 play this week.

Pierre Garcon is going to struggle all year with a foot injury, but he has a chance to have a good matchup. This recommendation is based on a potential injury in the Falcons secondary. If William Moore is listed as out, I’d bump Garcon up in to the top 20 for the week. If not, play him as a flex option only.

Greg Little has a great matchup. Greg Little has hands of stone. Brandon Weeden has averaged 42 pass attempts per game this year. Both Travis Benjamin and Mohamed Massaquoi are out this week. Weeden has to throw to someone and that someone is Little. It will also be interesting to see how the Browns use Josh Gordon this week. I think Little is a top 30 option and I’d start him over Kenny Britt (I know he’ll likely be out, but he has a late game and I’d put Little in for the early game).

In deeper leagues, I’d look at Jonathan Baldwin as the Ravens haven’t been the best at stopping WRs. I’d look at him as a flex option in 14 to 16 team leagues.

Another deep league play is Mario Manningham against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have been very poor against non-WR1s according to the Football Outsiders and he and Alex Smith look to be getting into a rhythm.

Down:  Demaryius Thomas has a very good matchup, the Patriots have been really good against number one WRs (Torrey Smith excluded). Peyton Manning isn’t going to make downfield throws like the Ravens did with Flacco so I’d move Thomas out of the top 20 this week.

In the same game, I’d nudge Brandon Lloyd down to about 20th in the rankings as well as the Broncos have also succeeded against number WRs this year.

I would push Brandon Marshall out of the top 15 (but just barely). The Jaguars are not a good team, but they have been able to control WRs to some degree. I still think Marshall is a start in most leagues, just don’t expect top 10 scoring.

Drop Steve Smith out of the top 20 as well as Seattle can shut down top WRs with their big cornerbacks. Smith isn’t exactly Lew Alcindor and the Panthers won last week with Cam Newton’s legs, not Steve Smith’s. Expect the Panthers to continue with that game plan until Smith pipes up and complains.

Hakeem Nicks is out again this week.

Tight End

Up: Our weekly “Who are Tennessee Titans facing?” update brings Kyle Rudolph into the picture. The Vikings’ TE disappointed last week so he could be on the waiver wire in your league. If he is, grab him and start him.

Scott Chandler had a head injury last week, but he seems to be over it. The 49ers have given up four TDs in the first four weeks. I expect to see 60 yards and a TD from Chandler and put him in the top 10.

Jared Cook will be the safety blanket this week for Matt Hasselbeck. The Vikings are OK against the TE, but I can see the Titans having to throw a great deal this week.

Down: Sorry to pick on Jermichael Finley again this week, but the Colts have been good against TEs this year. They haven’t played great TEs, but sit Finley as I expect production outside of the top 12 this week.

Fred Davis is not an option this week. The Falcons can control the TE and there are a number of options out on the waiver wire better than Davis.

Kicker

Up: Shaun Suisham is going up against and Eagles defense which has been relatively friendly to kickers. And with the Steelers offense still assumed to struggle a bit on the ground, field goal opportunities to be there. I put Suishamin the top 12 for kickers this week.

Down: On the other side of the field has been disappointing Alex Henery. The Steelers have been tough so far on FG kickers so push Henery outside of your top 12 this week.

Defense

Up: The Minnesota Vikings face the Tennesse Titans and new starting QB Matt Hasselbeck. I believe the Titans will score a bit, but Hasselbeck can be a turnover machine at times. I expect top 10 defensive performance out of the Vikings this week.

A deeper league play might be the Cleveland Browns owned in only 11% of Yahoo! leagues. The Browns are coming off a 10 day rest and face a Giants team which will be missing one of its top WR targets in Hakeem Nicks.

Down: I believe many players will be on the Atlanta Falcons this week as they face the Washington Redskins. The Redskins have not turned the ball over a great deal and they are at the top of the league in per game scoring. The Falcons don’t have the weapons to take advantage of the Redskins’ struggles on special teams. I can see the Falcons being right around the number 20 defense for the week.

Survivor

Updates since my column earlier in the week are in bold. In week four, I saw all 117 entries in one pool I’m in make it through to week five. So, I assume that if you were still alive in week four, then you’re still alive now.  Not that week four was without drama as my number three and four picks barely squeaked by with late game heroics. And my team to avoid won in a laugher.

Let’s take an early look at Week 5 options. At first glance, this looks like a tough week with a few land mines among the big favorites.

On bye this week: Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Survivor Pool – Week 5 selections

Here is what we have for a top 10 from Office Football Pool and ESPN as of early Sunday morning:

The Giants are the clear favorite of the masses at this point. My early top 3 picks for the week are listed below (final column up Sunday):

1. San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers struggled on the road at Minnesota, but they move back home to face a Buffalo Bills team that was embarrassed last week against the New England Patriots. The 49ers have the defense to stop the Bills and the Bills showed last week they cannot stop the run. I give the 49ers a 83% chance to win.
2. Minnesota Vikings – I may be going off the board a bit here, but I like this matchup for the Vikings. Chris Johnson looked good last week, but a lot of those yards were in the second half when the game was out of hand. And the Vikings can stop the run with the best of them. The Vikings got Jerome Simpson back and look like a complete offense. Their defense does struggle against the pass a bit, but it shouldn’t be a problem for them to win. I give the Vikings a 74% chance to win.
3. Green Bay Packers – I’d bump the Packers up to number three now with the news that Vontae Davis is out and Dwight Freeney is questionable (game-time decision) for the Colts defense. I think we’ll see a high scoring affair and the Colts will keep it close coming off of their bye, but the Packers offense should overwhelm. I give the Packers a 71% chance of winning.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers – Hopefully, we’ve learned from last week’s Falcons game that teams with a 10 day break do have an advantage. The Steelers are coming off a bye so they have an even longer break than the Panthers did and look to get the services of Rashard Mendehnall back in their backfield. The Steelers defense is also looking to get back James Harrison and Troy Polamalu. The Eagles are 3-1, but have not looked like a 3-1 team for long stretches of games. I believe the bye week helps the Steelers immensely Finally, Mike Tomlin is 4-1 in his short coaching career coming off a bye and has won four straight. I give the Steelers a 70% chance of winning the game.

Other teams I like this week:  Houston Texans (the Texans should take care of the lowly New York Jets, but the Jets are a desperate team so tread with caution); Chicago Bears (I can’t see the Jaguars overcoming the swarming Chicago defense in a what should be a low scoring affair).

As for the avoid list, I’d lean away from the New York Giants until I know what Hakeem Nicks’ injury status is. The Browns looked like a passable NFL team last week against the Ravens and they have a 10 day break coming into this matchup. And if Greg Little had marginal hands, they might have beaten the Ravens. The Giants are getting healthier on defense, but their offense is a bit nicked up. I’m sticking with this even though the Giants are number one on many lists as I think the Browns will keep it close.

If you get bonus points for picking an underdog, I’d look at the San Diego Chargers on the road in New Orleans. The Saints looked much better last week against the Packers, but still lost. The Saints are looking more and more like the “Aints” of old. I assume there will be a run on paper bags soon.

Just a reminder, if you ever wanted to see what Vegas thinks each team’s “chances of winning” are, use this handy little converter to transform money lines into win percentages. You can also create a spreadsheet if you’d like (or use this one – scroll to the bottom) to do it for fun at home. This percentage chance to win is another quick way to gauge win expectations for each team each week. You can get a variety of money lines here or here.

Chris Garosi is a contributor for District Sports Page. One of his favorite sports memories is witnessing Wilson Alvarez’s no-hitter at Memorial Stadium in 1991. Chris has played fantasy sports since the pre-Internet days and participates in any league for any sport to which he’s invited. He even won an XFL fantasy league. Really. You can follow him on Twitter at @chrisgarosi.