Fantasy Football: Week 6 Notes and Survivor Pool; Start ‘em and Sit ‘em

No time to chat. Bye weeks are here. Week 6 is here. All these bad teams are off this week. What to do? What to do? Well, maybe Public Enemy and Manford Mann can help.

Let’s take a look at who to start and sit this week. Also, there are some big changes in my Survivor Pool advice as well.

Remember, I usually like to use Rotoworld’s rankings as a quick guide and then see where I can take advantage of lower or higher rankings. Follow along, as I read aloud. If you have questions, just leave a comment or send me a note on Twitter.

On bye this week: Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Jacksonville Jaguars, Chicago Bears

Note: We are having an issue with our linker program so the player links are not functioning this AM.

Quarterback                               

Up: Christian Ponder tops this list again this week with another tasty matchup (albeit on the road) against the Redskins. The Redskins defense has given up 299 yards (and that 299 yard game was to the lowly Josh Freeman!) or more in every game. I have a decision in one league – do I start Ponder or Aaron Rodgers? I’m actually considering sitting Aaron Rodgers for his tilt against the Texans. I wouldn’t suggest you do it unless you are desperate, but Ponder should be a top 10 QB this week.

I expect Matt Ryan to be the highest scoring QB this week as the Raiders can’t stop anyone. Wait, didn’t I write this last week?

Further down the list, I’d take a look at Matt Schaub against a Packers defense which has given up an average of two passing TDs per game. The Texans have talked a lot this week about trying to get Andre Johnson back into the mix on offense, so we’ll see if they attempt to target him early.

If you are truly desperate, Russell Wilson has a great matchup with a Patriots defense giving up almost 300 yards a game and 2.5 TDs per game. Pete Carroll has made Wilson a game manager, so Wilson is still a risky play even with this matchup. Tread with caution, but in deeper leagues he’s an option.

Down: Andy Dalton’s matchup looks fantastic against a Browns team which has given up a ton of points to QBs this year. However, looking deeper, the Browns get All-Pro CB Joe Haden back this week. Haden will cover A.J. Green all over the field. Dalton had 318 passing yards against a Haden-less defense in Week two. However, I expect Haden to alter the game plan for the Bengals and expect Dalton to be closer to 250 yards and 2 TDs.

Joe Flacco’s matchup is tough this week against a stingy Dallas pass defense. Now, Dallas has faced some awful QBs in their first four games (Russell Wilson and Josh Freeman), but still I see Flacco struggling a bit here and expect about 225 yards and 1 TD from the Ravens QB. I’m starting Christian Ponder over him in one league this week.

Tom Brady is entering the Terrordome this week against a Seahawks defense which has allowed more than 250 passing yards once this year (251 to Tony Romo). I see Brady finishing near the bottom of the top 12 this week with an effort of 250 yards or less. Would I start Ponder over Brady? I think I probably wouldn’t as it’s too risky to put a stud like Brady on your bench, but I might consider it if I’m trying to hit a home run this week.

Running back

Up: Jamaal Charles could rush 50 times this week. Well, not really, but the hyperbole is there to point out that the Chiefs will run the ball as much as possible. I doubt they have any confidence in the mighty Quinn (Brady that is). The Bucs aren’t an easy matchup, but this recommendation is based purely on the epected volume the Chiefs running game will get. I might even look at Shaun Draughn as a viable flex option in deeper leagues this week for teams missing Matt Forte or Maurice Jones-Drew.

Willis McGahee has a great matchup in PPR leagues against a Chargers team giving up almost eight catches per game to RBs. Some may see the Chargers run defense and bench him (giving up just under 70 yards per game to RBs), but I like him as a low end RB1/high end RB 2 this week.

DeMarco Murray has good matchup with a Ravens defense that has struggled against the run. I like Murray as an RB1 this week and can see 100 yards and a TD.

Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis could top 100 yards this week for the first time since Week five of last season. Green-Ellis had a solid 75 yards against the Browns in week two. The Browns get stud LB D’Qwell Jackson back this week which hurts BJGE’s matchup. But, with Joe Haden back, the Bengals may attempt to establish the run to set up the pass. Green-Ellis is a borderline RB1 for me this week.

The Dolphins will have to rely on the run this week to defeat the Rams so I see Reggie Bush as a top 10 play in all leagues. Lamar Miller may even be viable in very deep leagues.

Down: Alfred Morris has a very tough matchup with the Minnesota Vikings this week. Morris has been great all season long, but I don’t see a third straight 100 yard game from him. The Redskins offense is a bit up in the air with the injury to Robert Griffin III. It looks like Griffin will play, but I could see the Vikings stacking the box even more to try to take away the run and make Griffin beat them. I see Morris as a low end RB2/flex play this week.

Ahmad Bradshaw also has a tough matchup. Andre Brown is out this week against the 49ers so David Wilson should see a bump in playing time and may eat into Bradshaw’s time as the Giants attempt anything against the 49ers stout run defense. I also see Bradshaw as a low end RB2/flex play this week.

This might be the week to find an alternative for Stevan Ridley. He’s been great for the Patriots, but the Seahawks are death to RBs. I could see the Patriots abandoning the run at some point or moving to someone like Danny Woodhead as the “full time” RB in this game.

Don’t go crazy and start a Green Bay Packers’ RB this week. Yes, the Texans aren’t great against the run and Brian Cushing’s injury doesn’t help matters, but the Packers are a pass first offense. Moreover, I don’t think we truly know whether Mike McCarthy will stick with Alex Green or mix in James Starks and Bradon Saine (and John Kuhn at the goal line) to render any RB in Green Bay useless.

Wide Receiver

Up: Any other Bengals WR outside of A.J. Green (see below) is going to have a field day this week. Andrew Hawkins is tops on my list to have a huge day (especially in PPR leagues). Hawkins will face Buster Skrine who is replacing an injured Dmitri Patterson. I don’t know what a Buster Skrine is, but I’m pretty sure he’s a CB who won’t be able to keep up with Hawkins. I can see a solid WR2 in Hawkins this week. Armon Binns is also a viable deep league option.

Larry Fitzgerald should be a top 5 WR play this week against a struggling Buffalo Bills defense. I don’t think the Bills will be able to get enough pressure on Kevin Kolb to keep Fitzgerald off the stat sheet.

Michael Crabtree is also due for a big day against a Giants defense that struggles against number one WRs according to Football Outsiders. I could also see Mario Manningham making his way into the discussion for a WR3/flex play this week as well.

I like James Jones’ matchup this week against a Texans defense that is great against the WR in general, but poor against WR2s according to Football Outsiders. Jones has been a TD machine and won’t keep that pace up, but I can see another TD for him this week and 60 yards.

Plumbing the depths, I like Jeremy Kerley’s matchup with the Indianopolis Colts. Mark Sanchez has to throw to someone as Shonn Greene can’t run the ball at all. Kerley looks to be his number one WR target right now so go with him as a WR3 this week.

Down:  Do not sit A.J. Green this week, but I don’t think he’ll have a huge day with Joe Haden all over him. He’ll likely catch fewer than five passes so it’s up to Green to make those receptions count. Again, he’ll start for everyone who owns him, but you may want to take an upside risk elsewhere on your starting roster to cover for Green’s anticipated poorer than usual showing.

I think this is the week we see Reggie Wayne come back down towards Earth a bit. The Jets have controlled the passing game well even with the absence of Darrelle Revis. I see Wayne’s production closer to a low-end WR2 than the WR1 he’s been all year. Expect less than 80 yards with a chance at a TD.

Darrius Heyward-Bey returns this week, but I’d sit him out in all but the deepest of leagues. The Falcons have a solid defense against the pass and I’d like to see Hewyard-Bey make it through a week after that vicious hit he sustained.

Hot waiver wire pickup Jordan Norwood is out this week and was placed on IR. He can be recalled, but drop him in all leagues. No need to carry him at all.

Hakeem Nicks is questionable this week and should play, but how well he plays is still up in the air. I’d wait as long as I could and have a backup plan should he not be ready.

Tight End

Up: Our weekly “Who are Tennessee Titans facing?” update is irrelevant this week I that the Titans have already played. Heath Miller had a solid six catches for 67 yards, but failed to score. Perhaps the Titans have turned a corner? Probably not.

Kyle Rudolph has another nice matchup against the Redskins. He should be a top six scorer this week.

Outside of the top ten scorers for the season, I like the Ravens Dennis Pitta. He’s struggled since a hot first two weeks, but the Cowboys offer some hope. I can see Pitta going for 50 yards on five catches and a TD this week to a Cowboys defense that regularly gives up scores to TEs.

If Martellus Bennett is healthy he’s a viable option in PPR leagues where the 49ers are giving up more than four receptions per game to TEs. Watch the injury report in the morning.

A quick note that Aaron Hernandez will likely be back this week for the Patriots, but play a limited set of plays. If you are desperate for TE help, start him, but I’d keep him on the bench this week as I am in one league where I also have Kyle Rudolph.

Down: Sorry to pick on Jermichael Finley again this week. Wait, did I write that last week too? Finley has a shoulder injury that could keep him out or hinder his production.  He’s owned in 91% of Yahoo! leagues so some must still find value in him. He’s a low end bye week replacement this week and should start losing production to D.J. Williams as the season progresses.

Dustin Keller looks to return for the Jets, but his matchup is tough. I’d sit Keller this week and wait until he gets his rhythm back and the Jets face an easier defense versus TEs.

Kicker

Up: Alex Henery is a good matchup play this week as the Lions have offered a lot of opportunities for kickers. The problem is that Henery seems to stink. He’s a risky play, but with bye weeks he’s viable this week. Expect (hope?) for a top 12 score from Henery this week.

Down: Matt Prater is still owned in over 50% of Yahoo! leagues, but he’s been a disappointment so far this season. Kicking on the road against a San Diego team that gives up less than one FG attempt on average per game spells disaster for Prater. I’d look elsewhere this week and for the rest of the season.

Defense

Up: The Dolphins (owned in only 33% of leagues) are a great play this week and into the future. The Rams and Sam Bradford will turn the ball over and should struggle without Danny Amendola. I like the Dolphins going forward as after their bye they face the Jets, Colts, Titans, Bills and Seahawks in succession. Oh, week 15 and 16? That’s right; they face the Jaguars and Bills. Watch your waiver wire next week. If someone drops them because they are on a bye, scoop them up. They should be a top 10 defense the rest of the season. You can cut a team like the Steelers or Eagles for the Dolphins.

A deeper league play is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the lowly Chefs. Great googly moogly indeed. The Bucs are without Aqib Talib, but they should be able to turn the Kansas City Chiefs over and I can’t see more than 17 points from them.

Down: I’m a bit down on the 49ers defense against a Giants offense which seems matchup-proof, but you aren’t going to sit one of the top scoring defenses in the league.

However, I’d consider sitting the Atlanta Falcons. The Raiders are coming off a bye and get Darrius Heyward-Bey back. I expect the Falcons to win, but the Raiders should cover and I think they could score some garbage time points to do so making the Falcons defense less attractive.

Survivor

Updates since my column earlier in the week are in bold. Week five was generally uneventful, although my third choice the Packers did go down taking about 10% of pools with them. With the Patriots loss early in the season taking a lot pools out, the data from Office Football Pool likely contains restarted pools so some of the data may not be representative of your pool of available teams.

Week six has some pretty terrible teams on bye, so it may be tougher to find an “easy” winner.

Bye week: Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints

Survivor Pool – Week 6 selections

Here is what we have for a top 10 from Office Football Pool and ESPN as of early Sunday morning.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are out after their surprising defeat at the hands of the lowly Tennessee Titans. The Falcons have moved to an overwhelming favorite which makes the risk of choosing a team other than the Falcons much more appealing. I don’t usually look ahead, but you won’t use the Falcons next week as they are on a bye, so the Falcons become a bit more attractive this week due to the bye next week. The Falcons line up as the big choice for survivors this week.  My final top 3 picks for the week are listed below:

1. Atlanta Falcons – The Raiders are coming off a bye and the Falcons are coming off a tough road win against the Redskins so many might lean toward avoiding the Falcons (even without playing the pool odds). That said, the Raiders have been blown out on the road in their two games this season and the Falcons. I see the Raiders covering the 10.5 points, but the Falcons win outright. I give the Falcons an 82% chance of winning. The Falcons are my choice this week.
2. Arizona Cardinals – The Buffalo Bills are awful. Just terrible in all facets of the game and their offensive line has been ravaged by injuries. The Cardinals are coming off of a tough defeat at the hands of the Rams and have offensive line issues of their own. I think the Cardinals defense can take advantage of that weakness while the Bills cannot. I give the Cardinals a 74% chance of winning this game.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers – The Titans have scored more than 14 points only once this season. Yes, it was 41 and it was at home, but that was against a Lions team that has little talent on the defensive side of the ball. It’s a short week for both teams and the Steelers are dealing with injuries again in their defense. However, I think the Steelers are a solid choice because of their balance on offense and give them a 70% chance of winning.
4. Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins have moved into my top four. They have a surprisingly balanced offense and the Rams struggle on the road. The DoIphins defense also looks much improved. With Danny Amendola’s injury, the Rams are missing a big part of their offense. I give the Dolphins a 69% chance of winning.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Bucs are coming off a bye and are facing a team quarterbacked by Brady Quinn. It can’t get any better for Tampa Bay than this.The Chiefs will likely run the ball as much as they can so as long as the Bucs can slow the run a bit, they should be able to win. The suspension of Aqib Talib doesn’t hurt the Bucs as much this week as I don’t see the Chiefs relying on Brady Quinn’s arm to win the game. I give the Bucs a 65% chance of winning.
6. Philadelphia Eagles – I’m not a huge Eagles fan this week, but I think they are a solid team at home. They face a Lions team which usually struggles on the road. I give the Eagles a 63% change of winning.

Other teams I like early in the week: None.

This is a very difficult week, but with the Steelers already out, the dynamic of the pool changes considerably. If you are risk averse, take the Falcons with the knowledge they are a heavy favorite to win. If you enjoy a bit of risk, take the Cardinals and hope that they win what is lining up to be a shootout with the Bills offensive line in shambles and the Cardinals without two of their top four cornerbacks. The Dolphins are also a viable choice if you want to zig when others zag.

Other teams I like early in the week: None

As for the avoid list, I’d lean away from the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers and Giants always seem to play close games and I think the Giants have the firepower to overwhelm the 49ers defense. A lot of their success will depend on the health of Hakeem Nicks and Martellus Bennett.

If you get bonus points for picking an underdog, I’d take Seattle at home. Seattle is a tough place to play and the Seahawks have a marauding defense that could disrupt Tom Brady.

Just a reminder, if you ever wanted to see what Vegas thinks each team’s “chances of winning” are, use this handy little converter to transform money lines into win percentages. You can also create a spreadsheet if you’d like (or use this one – scroll to the bottom) to do it for fun at home. This percentage chance to win is another quick way to gauge win expectations for each team each week. You can get a variety of money lines here or here.

Chris Garosi is a contributor for District Sports Page. One of his favorite sports memories is witnessing Wilson Alvarez’s no-hitter at Memorial Stadium in 1991. Chris has played fantasy sports since the pre-Internet days and participates in any league for any sport to which he’s invited. He even won an XFL fantasy league. Really. You can follow him on Twitter at @chrisgarosi