Fantasy Football: Week 7 – Survivor Pool and Thursday Night Game Preview

Week six saw many teams in our top 10 fall in the Steelers, Eagles, Cardinals and 49ers. I was certainly wrong about the Steelers (and I had my reservations). In my biggest pool, 33% of remaining entries went out and we are finally below 100 total entries remaining.  We’ve got six teams on bye this week so the pickings are slim again.

Bye week: Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers

Survivor Pool – Week 7 selections

Here is what we have for a top 10 from Office Football Pool and ESPN as of late Wednesday night.

The New England Patriots are back as a double digit favorite this week. Do we trust them in a divisional game on the road? Most of the entries left will likely have the Patriots left as they missed the week two landmine so perhaps we should look elsewhere. My early top 3 picks for the week are listed below (my final column will be up Sunday):

1. Minnesota Vikings – The key to the Vikings being the number one pick this week lies in the health of Jerome Simpson. If Simpson is healthy, they will be able to stretch the field and take advantage of soft spots in the Cardinals defense. The Cardinals are a wounded team with John Skelton back at the helm. Yes, I know that Skelton was somehow 5-2 as a starter last year (and the Cardinals won the other game that Skelton played in last year). Moreover, I think a number of entries will be on the Patriots this week and the Vikings make a good “pool odds” play. I give the Vikings a 73% chance of winning.
2. Chicago Bears – The Bears are coming off a bye and face a Detriot Lions team that consistently struggles on the road. The Lions won’t be able to solve the Bears defense and I don’t see the Bears being stopped by a Lions defense that is improved. I give Chicago a 70% chance of winning.
3. New England Patriots – The Patriots are currently ten point favorites and are coming off of a debilitating defeat the hands of the Seattle Seahawks. The New York Jets coming in riding high after decimating the Indianapolis Colts. I cannot see the Patriots coasting again if they have a lead late. And Shonn Greene won’t score three TDs again. I give the Patriots a 69% chance of winning.

Other teams I like early in the week: Buffalo, Oakland

As for the avoid list, I’d lean away from the Green Bay Packers. Yes, I know, Aaron Rodgers is back. Yes, I know it’s the Rams. But, the Rams are a good team at home and I’m not convinced that the Packers have everything figured out on offense. Plus, the Rams have Cortland Finnegan who can take away a WR all by himself.

If you get bonus points for picking an underdog, I’d take Tampa Bay at home. Josh Freeman has been great in home games against poor passing defenses. The Saints represent a poor passing defense.

Just a reminder, if you ever wanted to see what Vegas thinks each team’s “chances of winning” are, use this handy little converter to transform money lines into win percentages. You can also create a spreadsheet if you’d like (or use this one – scroll to the bottom) to do it for fun at home. This percentage chance to win is another quick way to gauge win expectations for each team each week. You can get a variety of money lines here or here.

Thursday night game preview – Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

The Seahawks had a signature win last week as Russell Wilson and the swarming Seattle defense put the kibosh on a New England victory. The 49ers on the other hand were embarrassed at home against perhaps the best team in the NFL currently – the New York Giants. But, the NFL is about matchups and momentum rarely carries over from week to week.

The Steelers are coming off a tight win and the Titans are coming off another debilitating loss. On paper, this looks like a mismatch. However, games aren’t played on paper (or something like that).

Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson won’t throw three TDs again this week. Wilson has been a turnover machine on the road with six interceptions to only two TDs on the road. Seattle will likely need to rely on…

Marshawn Lynch, who is entering a tough stretch of matchups as he gets the 49ers defense this week. He follows that game up with games against the Lions and Vikings – both top five against RBs in fantasy points allowed. He also has the Bears, Dolphins and 49ers (again) before the season ends. I do not expect much out of Lynch this week – perhaps 60 yards and a TD. Now might be a time to deal Lynch if you can get RB1 value back for him.

As for the rest of the Seahawks, I don’t see another player (or even the defense) worth starting in most standard leagues. I see a low scoring affair which makes the Seattle defense a potential desperation play, but nothing more.

San Francisco 49ers

The Seahawks defense will likely cause issues for the San Francisco 49ers offense. Alex Smith is a low end QB2 his week in a tough matchup.

Frank Gore also will likely not see much room to run and I see him as an RB2/flex play.

Seattle’s big, physical corners should be able to control 49ers’ WRs. They aren’t the fastest DBs so a player like Vernon Davis may be able to break free for a long gain.

I do like the 49ers defense this week as Russell Willson will certainly turn the ball over at least once or twice.

Chris Garosi is a contributor for District Sports Page. One of his favorite sports memories is witnessing Wilson Alvarez’s no-hitter at Memorial Stadium in 1991. Chris has played fantasy sports since the pre-Internet days and participates in any league for any sport to which he’s invited. He even won an XFL fantasy league. Really. You can follow him on Twitter at @chrisgarosi.