May 21, 2013

OPINION: For Washington Capitals, history serves as no lesson

I’m sure you’ve seen the numbers now. The Washington Capitals have never won a Game 3 after taking a 2-0 series lead in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. After Monday night’s penalty-filled loss to the New York Rangers, they still haven’t. The rest of the numbers aren’t much more encouraging.

The Washington Post’s Sports Bog did us the favor of looking up the Caps record in each game of playoffs. The Caps are 12-25 all time in Game 3s. 10-20 in Game 5s. 3-8 in Game 7s. Is that interesting? Is it informative? Is it predictive? It all depends on your point of view.

Are you fatalistic? Do you want to believe in some sort of curse? Self-fulfilling prophecy?

Seriously, I said it last year, and I’m here to say it again: The Caps previous history is not predictive of future performance. They will win or lose this series on their own merit. To think otherwise discredits the talent, passion and dedication of the current players and coaches.

The opinion piece I wrote last year (and linked above) was in advance of Game 7 with the Bruins in the first round. I needn’t remind Caps fans of how that one turned out. Since this franchise is obviously incapable of winning Game 7s by evidence of their all-time losing record, the Caps obviously lost that Game 7 to the Bruins and were knocked out in the first round.

Wait, what?

Here’s what I wrote, in case you don’t want to click the link to go back and check.

There’s been plenty of disappointment to go around through the years. But you know what? None of that history was made with this group of players and this head coach. Sure, there are some very important similarities, but there are enough elements changed in the construction of the roster and the management thereof that any comparison to the Capitals previous Game Seven results is rendered moot.

Then, the Caps went out and won. They “beat the odds” and changed history! Until, of course, the next Game 7 when they didn’t, which reinforced all the ridiculousness that this organization and fan base is “cursed”.

A large segment of the Washington Capitals fan base likes to think that they have been tortured for their sins worse than that of other hockey fan bases. I’m here to tell you all something. You’re not that special.

You want tortured? One need to look no further than the Caps current opponent. The Rangers have won exactly one Stanley Cup in almost 70 years! 70! That makes the Caps wait since 1974 look like a drop in the bucket.

Winning championships in any sport is hard. Like, damn hard. Only one team wins every year. Winning is the result of good planning, strong effort, good health and luck. In hockey, the luck factor plays more heavily than in the other sports, which I suppose is why some folks start to believe in “curses.” Like an 0-7 record with a 2-0 lead is anything more than coincidence.

Alex Ovechkin had nothing to do with the Caps falling in Game 3 against the Penguins in 1992 or 1996. Adam Oates wasn’t a factor in Game 3 against Tampa Bay in 2003, as he was toiling for the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim (forgot that one, did you?). Karl Alzner and John Carlson had no impact in the 2009 Game 3 loss to Pittsburgh.

Mike Ribeiro, Troy Brouwer, Joel Ward, Martin Erat, Eric Fehr, Jack Hillen and Steve Oleksy — more than one-third of the players that dressed for the Capitals Monday night — were not on the roster of the team just two years ago that dropped Game 3 to the Rangers at Madison Square Garden, site of last night’s apparent pre-ordained loss.

I suppose if you want to believe in fate, or curses, or some other interference from the Hockey Gods, I guess there’s no stopping you.

But here’s an idea: how about giving some credence to the thought that the team that’s trailing 0-2 in a series is the more desperate team and therefore has a natural inclination to come out and play harder in Game 3, to fight for their playoff lives. Or the fact that of the seven losses by the Caps after leading 2-0, five of the Game 3s were played in the trailing team’s home arena?

Nah, that has nothing to do with it. Cause the Caps are cursed, that’s all.

If you want to ignore the fact the Caps took six minor penalties, go ahead (I’ll acknowledge that a couple of them might have been dubious calls). If you’d rather not credit the Rangers for coming out and defending their own ice and instead believe the league and the refs had some sort of conspiracy to keep the Rangers in this series, that’s on you.

For me, I saw a Caps team last night that played well in spurts, but had too many defensive breakdowns in their own end that led to Brian Boyle (2 goals in 38 games) and Aaron Asham (2 goals in 27 games) scoring goals. I saw a team that was pushed around physically at times. I saw a team that has taken too many undisciplined penalties all series continue to do so. I saw a team that was trying to be perfect on a 6-on-4 advantage instead of trying to create havoc and look for an opportunistic bounce.

I saw a team lose on the road to a team that was one point behind them in the season standings.

That wasn’t the result of a curse, or demons, or the Hockey Gods frowning on the Caps. It was hockey.

OPINION: Left for dead, Washington Capitals head to playoffs with new lease on life

No one thought we’d be here 11 games into the season. No, we were all writing the obituary of the Washington Capitals for this season, and some went so far to declare the Ovechkin Era Caps dead altogether. You know who you are.

For my part, I certainly had my doubts whether the team GM George McPhee put together this season for new head coach Adam Oates was built to succeed. Really, in the beginning, it looked like the team was incapable of competing — players cobbled together as a contingent if the lockout didn’t ravage the entire schedule.

They looked old and inexperienced all at the same time. There was little perceived direction. Systems looked out of whack. The power play and penalty kills were both atrocious.

And their best players, including Alex Ovechkin, looked lost, uninspired and past their primes.

Bloggers and pundits alike called upon the organization to “blow things up.” Trade anything that wasn’t nailed down for prospects and draft picks.

The players, the coaches, the general manager and the owner were all subject to criticism, from local press and bloggers to the national and Canadian media.

On Jan. 30, I wrote the following:

This franchise’s future is tied to Alex Ovechkin. This team takes its cues from their captain and they are only going to be as good as he lets them. If Ovechkin can’t figure how to lead his team and inspire them to win, things could get ugly quickly — and for a very long time.

A week and half later, Feb. 7 to be precise, the Capitals hit rock bottom. With a 5-2 loss to the arch-rival Penguins in Pittsburgh, the Caps fell to 2-8-1 in their first 11 games. Back at Kettler the next day, McPhee made a rare, non-transaction related appearance before the media, addressing some of the things he saw as problems in the early season.

“With respect to the way we’re playing [with regards to] systems, I like the way we’re playing,”  McPhee said.  “I think if you’re watching, our team has really adjusted to the system pretty quickly — we wanted it right away, but it’s quicker than we were hoping for.

McPhee added, “We’re going to make good decisions. We’re not going to do anything short-term. We’re not going to blow anything up.”

Bold words from the architect of the team that at that point was dead last in the NHL.

Since that day, though, the team’s play has backed up McPhee’s opinion of them. All they’ve done is go 25-10-2, a regular season pace of 115 points, to earn the final Southeast Division banner and the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. Casual fans may still be wary of the quality of the Capitals as champs of the “Southleast’, but learned people know: this team has talent, has gained focus, has mastered the coach’s systems, is balanced, and is the hottest team in the league entering the playoffs.

It’s a dangerous combination.

The list of positives for the Caps starts with their captain. Left practically for dead early in the season, Ovechkin has been subjected to the ridicule of the broadcast media on more than one occasion this season. The particularly harsh criticism during one NBC Game of the Week by Mike Milbury stands out, when Milbury ripped Ovechkin on his play, leadership and manhood.

“When you have great talent it comes with great expectations and accountability,” Milbury said on NBC Sports Network. “If you put him up to those two standards tonight, he fails the test miserably.”

“God almighty, that’s just so disheartening to see a player with that kind of talent fall that short in terms of effort.”

Hard to imagine Milbury was referring to the same player that just finished the season as the league’s Rocket Richard winner, given to the top goal scorer in the league. Ovechkin has been nothing less than a Russian Machine, scoring 23 goals in his last 23 games and 32 in the 48 game season. Ovechkin’s been so good, the media that was burying him two months ago now might vote him as MVP of the league.

Seems I was right after all. This franchise’s future is tied to Ovechkin, who has regained his status as The Great Eight.

Ovechkin has done a lot of that damage on the power play, which is the top ranked unit in the league, and it’s not really close.

The Caps are the fifth highest-scoring team in the league at 3.04 goals per game — and that includes the putrid start. They have the No. 3 and 5 assist men in the league in Nick Backstrom and Mike Ribeiro. They have the top goal-scoring defenseman in the league in Mike Green, who scored his 11th and 12th goals of the season in the finale against Boston. Oh, and Green played just 35 games. Troy Brouwer picked a pretty good season to enjoy a career year. Shoot, even John Carlson, maligned much of the early season, ended up in the top three in the league for blocked shots.

And let’s not forget the job Braden Holtby did in his first full season in the league. He established himself as the No. 1 goalie on this team, putting up very good overall numbers and downright carrying this team at times until it found its legs.

There are still gaps in the talent on this team, particularly at off-wing on the top line with Ovechkin and Backstrom. They could use a little more muscle on the blue line. But amidst all the hand wringing and gnashing of teeth during January and February, they found some kids that could play. The play of Steve Oleksy and Jack Hillen fairly well relegated Dmitry Orlov and Tomas Kundratek to Hershey for the most part. One has to think that both the players and the team will benefit from that in the long run.

McPhee will have to decide what to do about Ribeiro’s contract, but that’s a discussion for another day.

For now, the Capitals enter the playoffs as “The team no one wants to play.” They square off against a familiar foe — the New York Rangers. Former and future division rivals, the Caps and the Rags have met in the playoffs four of the last five years. The Rangers ended the Caps season last year in the Game 7 heartbreaker in the second round. The Caps would like nothing better than to exact a little revenge on the Blueshirts.

In the Stanley Cup Playoffs, anything can happen. A goalie gets hot. A team gets a bounce here, a break there, and all of a sudden that imperfect team can find itself hoisting the coolest trophy in all of sport, passing it from teammate to teammate as they dance around the rink. Hot teams surprise in the playoffs all the time. The Caps didn’t start the season looking like they’d qualify as a candidate for that mantel, yet here they are, winners of 11 of their last 13 games, unquestionably the hottest team over the past two months.

Flawed, yes. But also true: playing as well as anyone in the league. So why not? They were left for dead once this season, so anything from this point on is gravy, right? No pressure. No expectations. Just keep going out there and punching the next team in the mouth. That’s what they’ve been doing since Feb. 7. Why not just keep it up for another two months or so?

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Dave Nichols is Editor-in-Chief of District Sports Page. He is credentialed to cover the Washington Nationals, Washington Capitals and Washington Wizards. Dave is a life-long D.C. sports fan and attended his first pro game in 1974 — the Caps’ second game in existence.  You can follow him on Twitter @DaveNicholsDSP.

OPINION: Lack of focus hinders Washington Nationals out of the gate

The Washington Nationals, predicted juggernauts of the National League, find themselves with a 10-8 record, 3 1/2 games behind their chief competition in the division, the Atlanta Braves, three weeks into the season. It’s not so much the record, per se, but how they’ve gotten there that has folks concerned.

The offense has been sporadic, relying mainly on home runs to score. The starting pitching has been erratic; the bullpen a crapshoot. And the defense, which was supposed to be their strongest suit, has been downright poor, with 18 errors in 18 games, including three more in Sunday’s loss to the New York Mets.

What’s worse, they are making errors in judgment in addition to the physical errors, compounding the effects of the miscues with mental mistakes.

Sunday, the Nats made three glaring mental errors: one on the base paths, one in the field, and one at the plate that all combined to help hand the Nats a 2-0 loss when they struggled to get anything going against a pitcher that came into the game with an ERA over eight in three starts.

Already trailing 2-0 in the top of the sixth, Denard Span walked against Mets starter Dillon Gee on four pitches. Gee was running out of gas and it was going to be the Nats chance to get to him before getting to feast on the Mets ragged bullpen. On an 0-1 pitch, Gee threw a fastball in the dirt that looked like it might get past catcher John Buck, so with a walking lead Span took off for second.

Buck made a nice backhand pick of the ball in the dirt though, rose and fired a strike to Ruben Tejada covering the bag to nail Span easily. Down two runs there with the leadoff runner on, Span had to make sure that ball got through or away from the catcher. It was a play of aggression that you can live with if you’re playing good baseball, but when a team is struggling it’s a case of a player trying to do too much on his own.

Take what they give you, but make 100 percent sure you’re going to be safe.

Two pitches later, there were two outs. Gee walked the next two batters and was chased from the game. Unfortunately, the Nats chance at a rally fizzled when veteran reliever LaTroy Hawkins struck out Ian Desmond — looking.

In the bottom half of the frame, Mike Baxter singled cleanly on one hop to left fielder Bryce Harper. The 20-year-old, maybe for the first time in his career, half-heartedly chased the ball down and had it hop out of his glove. Harper looked less than interested in collecting the ball, so Baxter — running all the way — hustled into second base. Baxter did not score, but the play made Harper — and in turn, the Nats — look bad.

The killer, though, came in the eighth inning.  Against 30-year-old rookie left-handed reliever Scott Rice, Steve Lombardozzi led off with a single. Span drew a five-pitch walk, with Rice throwing the last three balls in the dirt, nowhere near strikes. A visit by pitching coach Dan Warthen didn’t help, as Rice threw three straight upper-80s sinkers in the dirt to Jayson Werth to go 3-0.

Inexplicably, Werth committed a batting Cardinal sin as he swung at the 3-0 pitch against a pitcher that couldn’t find the strike zone with a map, tapping the 88-MPH sinker to short for an easy 6-4-3 double play. It’s not so much swinging 3-0 there, but there was nothing he could do with the pitch at his shoetops but hit the ball weakly on the ground. Again, it a case of one player taking it upon himself instead of taking what a mediocre team will give you.

After the game, manager Davey Johnson declined to discuss Werth’s decision to swing. For his part, Werth owned up to it, admitting on the postgame that it was a bad decision. “Look no further than me,” Werth said. “I feel like I pretty much blew it.”

Harper then struck out, seeing nothing but sliders and changeups, all but one outside the strike zone.

Expectations do funny things to a ball club. Of course, it’s early. The physical errors will probably take care of themselves — Ian Desmond probably isn’t going to continue to make an error every other game for the rest of the year. Once the physical errors are reduced — and the team starts to hit — the mental errors will probably go with them.

But the lack of focus right now while the team is scuffling a bit hurts even worse, because even though the Nats aren’t playing all that well right now, these are still ballgames they could — should – be winning. Sunday’s game was eminently winnable, right down to the last batters.

Complicating poor play with a lack of focus from what’s supposed to be a team with a ”World Series or Bust” mentality is troubling. The Nats have little time to dwell though, as they must regroup quickly for home series with St. Louis and Cincinnati this week. A disappointing start can turn into a downright bad start very quickly this week if the Nats don’t start paying attention to the details.

Breaking out the bats wouldn’t hurt, either.

OPINION: World Baseball “Classic” leaves plenty to be desired

In its purest form, the World Baseball Classic could be a great thing. Not just good, but great. The idea of the best players representing their countries for the chance to legitimately stake a claim to “World’s Best” is fascinating, intriguing — all sorts of thought-provoking. Unfortunately, in its current format, it’s a shell of what it could be.

In my opinion, the WBC, first and foremost, is a marketing strategy by MLB, much like the silly “fan cave” and numerous other campaigns. All of their plans and procedures revolve around that concept. I think the potential good of the program — selling baseball in other countries, expanding the “reach” of the game, healthy competition between countries, showcasing player’s heritages — are all by-products of selling prime advertising time in March.

That said, there is good that does come out of it. For those players that participate, it’s to their credit that they are taking the play on the field seriously and that they seem to really have a sincere appreciation for representing their home countries. The actual level of play on the field has been decent, with some spectacular mixed in. And the ratings and social media aspect of the WBC can’t be overlooked. It’s a boon to MLB Network and related affiliates.

Whether or not the WBC is expanding baseball’s “reach” in other countries is a debate to be had down the road. But since this is the third WBC (covering seven years), if it were the case wouldn’t we surely have seen more Dutch, Italian or Brazilian minor and major leaguers by now? Yes, I know it takes a long time for a sport to gain in popularity enough to build programs to develop a talent base that could send players from those countries to compete for big league jobs.

Despite the foothold that soccer has in youth sports in America, it still is a backwater compared to countries, leagues and programs around the world. If America can’t develop more world-class soccer, how can smaller countries hope to compete in baseball.

Wouldn’t we have seen more backlash for the Olympics dropping baseball as a sport?

No, the socio-impact is far secondary. It’s not the reach of “baseball” that they’re trying to expand, it’s the reach of “MLB Baseball” and its marketing and broadcast arms. This isn’t selling “the game”, it’s selling product.

Besides all that, if it’s just boiled down to baseball, this wouldn’t be a competition at all. Much like the NBA “Dream Team” that took over the Olympics, if each country were allowed to truly supply their best teams, no one could touch Team USA. Sure, vagaries happen in a round-robin, one-game format. In a series, if Team USA put up Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, David Price and R.A. Dickey against anyone, it wouldn’t be a competition.

As it stands, most countries have minor leaguers filling out the batting order and rosters. Just take a look at the pitchers Puerto Rico sent up against Team USA. Not a big leauger in the bunch. Not even close. Classic? Sounds like another day at Spring Training to me.

What would I change? First, obviously, the timing. I hate that it disrupts spring training. And it’s apparent the way American players decline the invitation to play that most big leaguers do too. Just look at Team USA. No Mike Trout. No Bryce Harper. No Stephen Strasburg. The list goes on. If the idea is to really settle it on the field, shouldn’t it be a priority to field the best teams possible?

And it’s not just Team USA either. Felix Hernandez won’t pitch for Venezuela. Yu Darvish and Ichiro both declined invitations to play for Japan. The list is almost endless.

To illustrate just how ridiculous some players view the WBC, Russell Martin — a catcher by trade — left Team Canada because they wouldn’t let him play… shortstop.

My proposal: Play the thing in November, right after the World Series, when attention on baseball is its highest all year. Yes, it further competes against the NFL. Yes, it complicates the winter leagues in the Caribbean, Mexico and South America. Yes, you’d still have players backing out to spend that time with their families, etc. But MLB used to have travelling teams tour Japan and Korea during November in the past. It’s not like it’s a completely novel idea.

What’s more, it would lead to better baseball. Members of Team USA that didn’t make the playoffs could take a couple of weeks off right after the season ends, then reconvene two weeks before the WBC to get together for practices. It would be like a two-week stay on the D.L. for everyone, a chance to freshen up before going back at it again. Better than ramping up to play competitive baseball the first two weeks of March. You might lose a player or two from the World Series teams, but it’s better than the mass avoidance going on now.

Playing in November would also mitigate the injury factor. If a player gets hurt in March, there’s a good chance that will affect his team during the regular season. Should a November injury occur, said player has the off-season to heal before the next spring training.

Next, I’d tighten the eligibility rules. If you, your parents, or grandparents were born in the country, you’re eligible to play for that country. That’s it. Personally, each of my eight great-grandparents were of different home countries, so I’d be eligible for eight different teams under the current rules. That should be tightened up.

I’d change the run differential rule that led to the Canada-Mexico brawl. The round-robin aspect is fine, so just make head-to-head the tiebreaker for two teams. If three teams are tied, flip coins or something else. It’s better than someone trying to run up the score, especially since they have a mercy rule to limit embarrassing scores. How can you have a mercy rule, yet your first tiebreaker is run differential?

To those currently enjoying the World Baseball Classic, please by all means continue to enjoy. There’s some decent baseball to be witnessed. The pageantry of pitting countries against one another makes for interesting story lines — if you can get by the incessant and unnecessary jingoism being perpetuated by MLB Network. I think they could do better than settling for ratings bonanza in March if they were really interested in determining a true “World Champion”.

OPINION: Brouwer’s comments shed further light on Caps dark secrets

“It can be frustrating. I know there’s a lot of guys that work really, really hard to get where they are, playing in the NHL. And some guys it’s a little bit easier because of their skill set. Every player’s different, everyone’s attitude is different. Every personality is different, and that’s why the world is the way it is.” — Troy Brouwer, on former teammate Alexander Semin

You had to know that the first time the Washington Capitals faced the Carolina Hurricanes this season, there would be some emotion — at least from the Caps side of things. Indeed, Caps backup alternate captain Troy Brouwer, often hailed as a leader of the club, went off unprovoked on former teammate Alexander Semin, who makes his first trip to D.C. as a visiting player Tuesday night with his new team.

“It was tough to lose his scoring ability, when he wanted to play,” Brouwer said. “But all in all I think we’ve been doing well without him. Some nights you didn’t even know if he was going to come to the rink. It’s tough to play alongside guys like those because you don’t know what you’re going to get out of ‘em.”

Brouwer also made comments about the lack of accountability under former head coach Bruce Boudreau, and that’s probably another not-so-veiled attack on the perceived preferential treatment for certain players in the room — of which Semin was almost certainly included.

On playing under Boudreau, Brouwer said, “It was very laxidasical…kind of guys were able to do whatever they pleased. There wasn’t a whole lot of accountability and then when we had a little bit of trouble and there needed to be accountability it wasn’t received exactly with open arms, I’ll say.”

The feelings Brouwer made public today are not new and every single person in that room — player, reporter and staff — were well aware of them, whether they are an accurate representation of what was going on or not.

Mercurial. Enigmatic. Lazy. Aloof. All words that have been used to describe the ultra-talented Semin by members of the D.C. media, both in the past and some resurfacing today in the wake of Brouwer tearing the scab off a still-fresh wound. Brouwer becomes yet another former teammate of Semin’s to rip the player after they were no longer teammates.

Semin certainly made himself an easy target, taking off optional skates, leaving the room before media could question him, almost always using a translator when his English was at least passable. Then there’s the perception by fans, media, and apparently Semin’s teammates that he didn’t always play hard on the ice and couldn’t get more out of his considerable talent that he did.

Making these comments today, largely unprovoked by the media, signifies that Brouwer is still carrying the baggage from a problem that has been eradicated. Who knows how many others feel the same? It seems to me that if Brouwer had such a problem with Semin he should have said something to him or the team at the time instead of muttering things under his breath or behind Semin’s back.

One has to wonder if these feelings were ever discussed behind closed doors before being aired in the public. And if not, why not?

All these comments do today is let Brouwer feel a little better about himself and serve the media with juicy sound bites. They also give Semin and his Hurricanes teammates extra motivation to come into Verizon Center Tuesday night and rip two more points away from the Caps. It further reinforces the perception of dysfunctionality of the Caps room and organization, at least at that time.

OPINION: Jordan Crawford’s days with Washington Wizards appear to be numbered

The end of Jordan Crawford’s days in a Washington Wizards jersey are coming and if people needed any proof, they can look at last night as the climax of an end to Crawford’s eventful stay in the Red, White and Blue.

With his posture on the bench defined as at a constant 45-degree angle, Crawford failed to stay engaged in what was happening on the floor, failed to even attempt to become apart of team huddles during timeouts and in my opinion looked like he was more interested in making sure his towel stayed in place than in determining how he could help his team win. Add his behavior during the game up with the fact he threw his jersey into the stands, stormed out of the locker room before media could arrive and his cryptic tweets and you get a perfect storm for an unhappy player who wants to be traded.

After the game, I asked Head Coach Randy Wittman for a comment on Crawford’s current status with the team.

“He’s like any of our other 14 guys, he’s got to stay with it, his opportunity is going to come again,” Wittman said following last night’s loss. ”Like any of the guys that doesn’t have the opportunity to play or be in the rotation, gotta be ready because it changes like that … [This season is too long] it is a test of your will and character and I look at those things when you’re building a team and who handles it the right way and who stays in it and stays ready.”

Clearly based on his posture alone, one could assume Crawford may not be handling it the right way. When pressed for more information, Wittman did not seem to want to discuss the matter more and said to me he didn’t see Crawford’s in game antics.

“Listen, I’m watching the game. You’re obviously not watching the game, you’re watching him. I can’t comment on that.”

With the trade deadline fast approaching and Crawford’s seeming lack of enthusiasm, it seems he could be a prime candidate to be moved. Sitting four points away from 2,000 and only playing limited minutes since he was pulled from a win over the Los Angeles Clippers, Crawford may not have a spot in the rotation. Wittman alluded to players with good attitudes getting second chances and based on Crawford’s current aura in front of the media, coupled with Wittman’s comments, it might be fair to say Crawford does not have that attitude.

The only players reportedly off limits are John Wall, Bradley Beal and Nene. Those are the pillars this organization is looking to build around and even though fans may have chanted for Crawford to enter the game last night, it does not appear there is room, at the guard spot at least, for him to play consistent minutes.

The biggest question for the Washington Wizards now may not be about whether Crawford can perform for them, but rather does anyone want him on their squad?

Listen here for audio of Wittman’s comments, courtesy of Sky Kerstein. His discussion of Crawford begins three-quarters of the way through the recording.

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Andrew Tomlinson is a Contributor to District Sports Page. He is a graduate of The American University and has experience covering the NCAA, WNBA, NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL.  Andrew is a former staff writer for On Frozen Blog, where he spent three years covering the ups-and-downs of the Washington Capitals. You can follow him on Twitter @drew_tomlinson.

OPINION: Washington Capitals team will be tough to “blow up”

Last season, the eighth place team in the Eastern Conference had 92 points, roughly 1.12 points per game. In this lockout-shortened season, that works out to about 54 points. After Tuesday night’s 3-2 loss at home to the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Washington Capitals record stands at 2-7-1 (five points), a 24-point pace for the season.

In order to garner those 54 points to have a chance to qualify for the playoffs, the Caps need an additional 51 points, equivalent to a 22-9-7 record for the remaining 38 games of the season. For reference, that’s a 110-point pace over the course of a regular 82-game schedule.

So now that we’ve identified how difficult it will be for the Caps to qualify for the playoffs after the horrendous start they’ve played to so far, the more appropriate question at this point may be where, exactly, do the Caps go from here? [Read more...]

OPINION: Washington Capitals slow start has them behind eight-ball in short season

With a 3-2 loss to the Ottawa Senators in the first of two games north of the border this week, the Washington Capitals have put themselves in the unenviable position of starting the season 1-4-1 after six games. Now, during a normal 82-game slate a 1-4-1 record over a six-game period wouldn’t be a death sentence. Teams withstand losing streaks and survive to make the playoffs all the time.

But this lockout-shortened 48 game period is a different story. Six games represent an eighth of the entire season. The Caps already find themselves seven points behind Tampa Bay in the Southeast Division. While the pragmatist will point out the Caps, despite their horrible start, are only three points out of the eighth spot in the conference and that six games means nothing in relation to the final standings, it’s the way the Caps have gotten to where they are that’s even more concerning than their bottom line. [Read more...]

OPINION: First two games show Caps have long way to go

That home opener wasn’t exactly what we were looking for, eh?

It was bad enough when the Washington Capitals went down to Tampa Bay and had their doors blown off in the third period by the Lightning in both teams’ season opener. Everyone expected growing pains this season, with a one-week training camp, a third head coach in 14 months integrating his systems, and a four-month layoff due to the lockout. But after the Caps got the opener out of their systems, I think the expectations for opening night were higher.

The disappointment, then, of a 4-2 beating in the home opener by the Winnipeg Jets — the Caps second straight regulation loss to a division opponent — stings that much more. Combined with the lingering resentment about the lockout, if the Caps don’t right the ship quickly, things could spiral out of control quicker than they know what to do about it.

What’s worse, quotes from the locker room about lack of conditioning, energy, preparedness and communication are all the more troubling. [Read more...]

OPINION: Verizon Center will be full of Washington Capitals fans tonight — Will you be there?

Fans during warmups at Verizon Center, May 2 (Cheryl Nichols/District Sports Page)

Fans during warmups at Verizon Center, May 2 (Cheryl Nichols/District Sports Page)

There’s nothing like the opening game of a new season at home. The anticipation, the excitement, the pageantry. It’s like the first day back to school, when you get to see your old friends again and pick back up after a long summer of fighting with your little brothers. For the Washington Capitals and their legion of red rockers, it’s no different. It’s just this year, we’ve had to wait an extra four months or so.

The lockout turned some fans off from the NHL product though, and that’s a damn shame. There are those that have self-imposed an exile from the best hockey there is to offer in protest for the way the owners shut the game down until a new CBA could be hammered out.

To them, I ask, to what end?

I understand a certain level of frustration on the part of the die-hard fan. This is someone who invests a lot of time and/or money and may feel — on some level — that they are “partners” in this relationship with the organization, to use a word Ted Leonsis, majority owner of the Capitals, likes to use to describe the team/fan dynamic.

You missed the game. You felt left out — betrayed even. You missed a part of your social fabric that has become so ingrained into your winter routine that it felt like second nature and that was ripped away from you by spoiled millionaires and billionaires while they bickered on how to divide up your hard-earned money.

But here’s the bottom line, and I’m sorry if it comes as a shock to your system: They don’t care if you don’t come back on an individual level. Most fans couldn’t come back fast enough. And if you don’t, you’re only hurting yourself. If you’re one of the few that will be conducting your own personal boycott of the NHL for whatever reason and whatever length of time, good for you. Your sense of moral conviction is strong. If you feel that strongly about making yourself suffer over a situation you had no control over, that’s your decision to make alone. But I’ve got news for you, they won’t miss you.

What’s the old expression? Cut off your nose to spite your face? I just don’t understand the reaction to having the NHL taken away from you is to not return when it comes back.

Ted Leonsis apologized on his blog last Thursday. Taken at face value, the opening paragraph would seem to indicate that Mr. Leonsis, who has taken quite a beating by the media and a segment of Washington Capitals fans for his role in the lockout and CBA negotiation, acknowledged the role that he played and is contrite about not being able to bring the dispute to a quicker resolution.

“I know Capitals fans – and hockey fans around the world – agonized the past few months; I apologize for my role in not being able to help us reach a more timely agreement. I’m sorry it took this long.”

Mr. Leonsis did not apologize for the lockout itself that cost almost half the NHL season. It’s assumed that be believes that it was a foregone conclusion, an inevitability. Rather, he apologized for the his role and the length of time it took to come to an agreement.

For some, it was a first step in soothing the bad feelings that linger for a portion of the fan base. For others, it looks like a blatant P.R. move designed to do nothing more than give the appearance of “caring” about the fans. I will choose to believe the former, though it seems like I am in the minority in that opinion.

On Mr. Leonsis’ blog, some comments indicated that some fans will be “reluctant to really invest my time or energy back into hockey,” and that they are “hoping to see more than words when it comes to making up with your fans.” A popular suggestion on social media last week suggested the league give away or discount the Center Ice package to entice fans to come back.

But the fans that product appeals to was never going to leave to begin with.

The fans that the league need to court are the casual fans, those that may come to a game or two every year, to try to get them to re-invest in the game. They need to find a way to get fans in the stands in Phoenix and Dallas and Columbus and Long Island. And Carolina and Florida and Nashville.

As for the Caps, the team announced last Friday evening a litany of discounts and giveaways designed to entice season ticket holders to come back to Verizon Center, to help smooth over bad feelings leftover from the work stoppage and Mr. Leonsis’ involvement in the proceedings. Still, many howled that the Caps were catering simply to the season ticket holders, leaving most fans still out to dry.

No, for a certain segment of the fan base, no act of contrition will seem genuine enough.

If your level of moral outrage over the lockout is something you can’t reconcile, there’s no amount of free hot dogs or half-priced t-shirts in the world to suffice, I guess. Your loss.

I was as disappointed as anyone that the league lost so many games to the lockout and labor negotiations. The NHL leadership and Board of Governors are seriously misguided in their practice that continually locking out the players to conduct labor negotiations is the best way to go about things. It’s not. It costs the league and the players a lot of money. It robs the fans of the product they so very much want to consume. It literally shortens players careers. It’s bad practice.

Unfortunately, it’s part of the business. All four major sports have gone through it. Most labor-based industries at one time or another has gone through it. Would you expect more out of your garbage collecting company once they settled with their collectors? No, you’re just happy someone is finally picking up your stinking garbage.

The actuality is that Verizon Center will be full again tonight with 19,000-plus red rockers, regardless if you’re there or not. Sadly, I will not be there in person. It’s the first home opener I’ve missed in over a decade. But you can be damn sure I’ll be watching from our new home in Idaho.

If the Caps can put Saturday night’s loss to Tampa Bay in their rear view mirror and get off to a good start and win, the fans will fill Verizon Center all season again like usual. If they advance in the playoffs, it’ll be like the lockout never happened.

But if Saturday’s rust continues and they get off to a slow start and suffer through an inconsistent — or worse — season, that’s when the ownership should get concerned. We saw some cracks in the armor last season when the team struggled. Missing the playoffs in this lockout-shortened season will be worse for business than the lockout itself, public relations efforts or no.

Dave Nichols is Editor-in-Chief and Washington Nationals Page Editor for District Sports Page. He is credentialed to cover the Washington Nationals, Washington Capitals and Washington Wizards. Dave is a life-long D.C. sports fan and attended his first pro game in 1974 — the Caps’ second game in existence.  You can follow him on Twitter @DaveNicholsDSP.