September 16, 2019

Fantasy Football: Week 11 NFL Survivor Pool Picks

Survivor

Welcome back to DSP’s NFL Survivor Pool picks column for Week 11. Hopefully you stayed away from Pittsburgh as I cautioned you to do last week. Other than that, not a lot of other fallout from Week 10 should have been felt in your pool.

I’m a bit later than I’d hoped with my column this week so we’ll try to get back on schedule for next week as long as work and real life stay at bay. Let’s jump into the pool this week and see what we have to choose from.

Bye Week: Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, and New York Jets.

Survivor Pool – Week 11 selections

Here is what we have for a top 10 from Office Football Pool and Yahoo! as of mid-Saturday afternoon:

Survivor_Week_11

A team with a 3-6 record is the top choice? Yuck. This looks like it’s going to be a tough week. Congrats to those of you who chose Miami and can sit back and relax.

As always, a friendly reminder, I never (almost never) save a team for later in the season. There is too much volatility (especially when it comes to injuries) in the NFL and the best information you have is for the upcoming week. Trying to predict performance in future weeks is nearly impossible.

Here are my choices for Week 11 in order of preference:

  1. San Diego Chargers – The Chargers are getting healthier on offense with Ryan Mathews finally back in the fold. Mathews’ return should help to balance the offense and help all of the skill players. They face a Raiders team that can’t defend well enough and continues to trot Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones in the backfield. I give the Chargers an 83% chance of winning.
  2. Denver Broncos – Not much to say here. Denver is great and St. Louis is less than great. The Rams’ defensive line is getting better and the elevation of Shaun Hill back to the starting QB role give the Rams a better shot. However, the Broncos have too many weapons for the Rams to compete. I give the Broncos a 79% chance of winning.
  3. New Orleans Saints – Saints at home? Check. So, we’ll take the Mark Ingram/Drew Brees show over the Jeremy Hill/Andy Dalton show. Saints are better at home by a significant margin than when they are on the road. The Bengals are exactly the same type of team – and they are on the road. The Bengals won’t be nearly as bad as they showed against the Browns last week. I give the Saints a 69% chance of winning.
  4. WashingtonYuck. Double yuck. I can’t believe I have them this high, but Washington is a more dynamic offense with Robert Griffin III under center. He makes Alfred Morris more dangerous and can extend plays with his legs to help make up for an average offensive line. The Bucs have a dangerous passing offense, but lack the balance of a solid run game. I give Washington a 67% chance of winning.

I really don’t like much after these four (and I don’t like Washington very much). However, we’ll look at a few more options.

  1. Cleveland BrownsThe Browns looked great against the Bengals and are coming off a 10 day break. The backfield rotation while infuriating to fantasy players looks to be working so far for Cleveland. Their defensive line continues to take injury hits, but Tashaun Gipson looks like he’ll be healthy and play this week against rookie Ryan Mallett making his first start (and without Arian Foster). I think the Browns’ defense terrorizes Mallet and the Browns roll. I give the Browns a 65% chance of winning.
  2. Green Bay Packers The Packers D looks like a different animal with Clay Matthews at middle linebacker. The Eagles offense looked great in the first week of Mark Sanchez’ reign. However, the Packers are a different squad and could give Sanchez some issues. I’m not a huge fan of taking the Pack against a dynamic offense that can keep up with Aaron Rodgers and company. They are a reasonable choice this week. I give the Packers a 65% chance of winning.

Other teams I like this week: None

As for the avoid list, I would stay away from the San Francisco 49ers on the road against the New York Giants. The Niners are a solid team, but heading east to face a Giants team that gets Rashad Jennings back this week make San Francisco a much less attractive choice. Jennings will make everyone on offense better with his presence and I imagine Tom Coughlin will ride Jennings as he did early in the year.

If you get bonus points for picking an underdog, I’d think about the Minnesota Vikings against the Chicago Bears. Yes, the Bears are at home, but they certainly seem to be a team in complete disarray. And the Vikings look like they may just air it out this week which plays into their receivers’ strength.

If you ever want to see what Vegas thinks each team’s “chances of winning” are, use this handy little converter to transform money lines into win percentages. You can also create a spreadsheet if you’d like (or use this one – scroll to the bottom) to do it for fun at home. This percentage chance to win is another quick way to gauge win expectations for each team each week. You can get a variety of money lines here or here.

If you have any questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter at @chrisgarosi

Fantasy Football: Week 11 Survivor Pool Picks

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 11

It happened last week as the Tennessee Titans tossed a raft of people out of the Survivor pool in Week 10. In my two largest pools, we are down to around 3% of all entrants remaining. The Week 11 Survivor Picks will have a lot fewer people interested. Depending on the size of your pool, if you are down to two or three players it may be time to talk to the others about chopping or sharing or guaranteeing something for all players left in the pool.  For those in larger pools, it’s time to look at the picks for Week 11 Survivor Pools.

Week 10 recap

The Titans took out about 70% of all remaining players last week. And the Colts took out almost another 10%. It was ugly. Looking back the clear play was the Saints as they demolished the Cowboys. The Titan’ loss highlights the main reason for fading teams that are chosen by a majority of pool players. The payoff should this huge “favorite” lose is enormous. Enough crying over lost chances, let’s look at Week 11.

Bye week: Dallas Cowboys, St. Louis Ram.

Survivor Pool – Week 11 selections

Here is what we have for a top 11 from Office Football Pool and Yahoo! as of early on Thursday:

Office Football Pool

Yahoo! Survival Football

Rank

Team

Picks

Rank

Team

Percent

1

Arizona Cardinals

25.20%

1

Arizona Cardinals

28.94%

2

Cincinnati Bengals

25.00%

2

Cincinnati Bengals

27.28%

3

Seattle Seahawks

14.10%

3

Seattle Seahawks

18.62%

4

Houston Texans

11.80%

4

Houston Texans

5.07%

5

New York Giants

8.50%

5

New York Giants

4.34%

6

Philadelphia Eagles

3.60%

6

Detroit Lions

4.05%

7

Denver Broncos

2.80%

7

Philadelphia Eagles

3.09%

8

Indianapolis Colts

1.60%

8

Indianapolis Colts

1.43%

9

Detroit Lions

1.50%

9

New Orleans Saints

1.41%

10

New Orleans Saints

1.20%

10

New York Jets

1.02%

 

The Arizona Cardinals? Wow. Well, desperate times call for desperate measures I suppose. There are a couple of key injury situations (Peyton Manning and Terrelle Pryor) that are not yet decided. I’ll be back on Sunday with an update this week once we know more on those two. Are the Cardinals the best bet to win in Week 11? Let’s take a look. Here are my choices for Week 10 in order of preference:

  1. Seattle Seahawks – If you have the Seahawks left, there is no reason not to use them this week. They are at home where they are a superior team. They should get Percy Harvin back in the lineup to give Russell Wilson another weapon on offense. They face a Vikings team that has looked solid over the last two weeks, but can struggle on defense and doesn’t have a true receiving threat on offense. No use in saving for a rainy day. That rainy day is today. I give the Seahawks an 84% chance of winning.
  2. Denver Broncos – This assumes that Peyton Manning plays and is at least 75% of himself.  The Chiefs are all smoke and mirrors. They haven’t beaten a team with a winning record this season. Only the Cowboys and Eagles are at .500 of all of the teams defeated by the Chiefs.  The Chiefs don’t have the offensive horses to keep up with Manning and the Broncos. I give the Broncos and 81% chance of winning.
  3. Houston Texans – Yes, the Texans are a bad team. But they seem less so with Case Keenum at the helm. That is a strange sentence to write. This assumes that Terrelle Pryor doesn’t play or is less than his normal self in the game. Arian Foster is done for the year and Ben Tate has broken ribs, but Keenum has been able to sling the ball around to a variety of receivers. The Raiders don’t look like a pro team with Pryor at less than 100%. I give the Texans a 75% chance to win.
  4. Arizona Cardinals – Oof. This is probably the direction I’m going this week as I don’t have any of the three teams above available to me. The key to taking the Cardinals is the belief that their opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars, is truly a terrible team of epic proportions.  The Jags beat the Titans last week, but I believe that is the exception that proves the rule that the Jags just aren’t very good. The Cardinals do have a good defense with Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu able to likely corral the Jags receivers. I give the Cardinals a 71% chance of winning.
  5. Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals defense is a shell of itself with Leon Hall and Geno Atkins done for the season. The Bengals run defense has been awful since Atkins’ departure. Luckily for the Bengals, the Browns don’t have the RBs to take advantage of that weakness. The danger for the Bengals is if Jason Campbell gets time to throw the ball. The Browns can explode with Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon, but I think the Bengals take the home field advantage and win by three. I give the Bengals a 69% chance of winning.
  6. New York Giants – The Giants save my bacon last week in one pool so for that I’m thankful. The Giants get a reeling Packers’ squad that will have Scott Tolzien at QB this week. Now, the Packers have solid running game for the first time in years and still have Jordy Nelson at WR. That said, I believe the Giants can control Tolzien well enough and Andre Brown gives the Giants a running attack they can lean on. I give the Giants a 66% chance of winning.

This is an ugly week all around. If the Cardinals lose this week, I assume a lot of pools will just about be done. I don’t like taking a team on the road especially one that isn’t very good in the Cardinals. And I also don’t like to use a team facing a team coming off the bye which is what the Bengals are faced with this week. It’s not great, but the Cardinals look to be the way to go.

Other teams I like early this week: Philadelphia Eagles (65%) – They can’t lose every game at home, can they?

As for the avoid list, I would stay away from….well, just about everyone else. This is another week to watch the late movement on Vegas lines and see if any news comes out to sway things. Same advice as last week – I wouldn’t go off the board this week.

If you get bonus points for picking an underdog, I’d think about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have no running game and I think they should petition to be allowed to run 12 guys out there on defense as porous as they’ve been. The Bucs aren’t good and they lost their solid rookie RB Mike James last week, but they have a good chance to start a winning streak even with neanderthal Greg Schiano coaching them up.

Just a reminder, if you ever wanted to see what Vegas thinks each team’s “chances of winning” are, use this handy little converter to transform money lines into win percentages. You can also create a spreadsheet if you’d like (or use this one – scroll to the bottom) to do it for fun at home. This percentage chance to win is another quick way to gauge win expectations for each team each week. You can get a variety of money lines here or here

Chris Garosi is a contributor for District Sports Page. One of his favorite sports memories is witnessing Wilson Alvarez’s no-hitter at Memorial Stadium in 1991. Chris has played fantasy sports since the pre-Internet days and participates in any league for any sport to which he’s invited. He even won an XFL fantasy league. Really. You can follow him on Twitter at @chrisgarosi.

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