September 21, 2019

Fantasy Football: Week 12 NFL Survivor Pool Picks

Survivor

Welcome back to DSP’s NFL Survivor Pool picks column for Week 12. I’m later again this week than planned, but hopefully that allowed you to miss out on the Kansas City debacle last night. This is our last week of byes, so you’ll have a full complement of teams next week. But, we have to get through this week first.

It was quite the bloodbath last week so congrats for still being alive in your pool.

Bye Week: Carolina Panthers, Pittsburgh Steelers

Survivor Pool – Week 12 selections

Here is what we have for a top 10 from Office Football Pool and Yahoo! as late Friday afternoon:

Survivor_Week_12

I think I may skip the Thursday night game for the rest of the year. There is just too much volatility as we get later in the year with injuries piling up and fatigue setting in for many of the players. The top choice this week the top choice is facing a team coming off a bye. Should we roll with them or look elsewhere.

As always, a friendly reminder, I never (almost never) save a team for later in the season. There is too much volatility (especially when it comes to injuries) in the NFL and the best information you have is for the upcoming week. Trying to predict performance in future weeks is nearly impossible.

Here are my choices for Week 12 in order of preference:

  1. San Francisco 49ers – Washington is terrible and is imploding. They seem to hate each other, their owner continues to meddle and their head coach flip flops on every issue every day. The 49ers are not great and the volatility of Colin Kaepernick always concerns me. However, the Jim Haslett-coached Washington defense is horrendous and the Niners should be able to take advantage of the D both on the ground and in the air. I give the 49ers an 86% chance of winning.
  2. Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles got a scare when Mark Sanchez missed some time with an injury during last week’s game. He seems to be healthy and their offensive line continues to get healthier. The Eagles are home to a Titans team with a rookie QB, rookie RB and questions mark all over most of their WR corps. The Titans defense is middling and the Eagles should be able to gash them deep with Jeremy Maclin and Jordan Matthews. I give the Eagles an 84% chance of winning.
  3. Indianapolis Colts – The Colts are the safest play this week as the head home to face a poor Jags team that is coming off a bye. The Jags get Marcedes Lewis back in the lineup, but I don’t think they have the offense to keep up with Andrew Luck and the passing game. Luck will feel the loss of Ahmad Bradshaw and my only concern is that the Colts offense is now one-dimensional as Trent Richardson cannot play RB and my guess is the Colts will give him every chance to succeed. I give the Colts an 81% chance of winning.

And now, an interlude. Take one of these three teams if you have them. Don’t look any further. Look away. Open a new tab in your browser, select one of these three teams and submit. Then, go out and shovel snow (or walk on the beach or do whatever it is you do with your free time).

If you don’t have one of those three teams available, read on:

  1. Green Bay Packers – Yes, the Pack is on the road, but their defense is clicking on all cylinders and their offense almost always does so. They should have enough to confuse Teddy Bridgewater (who will be down to Jerick McKinnon and the recently claimed Ben Tate) in the backfield. Expect a big game from Aaron Rodgers and the offense. I give the Packers a 74% chance of winning.
  2. Denver Broncos – I’m a bit reticent to take the Broncos here as they are banged up on offense (though it looks like Emanuel Sanders will play Sunday). However, the Dolphins look like they will be without TE Charles Clay so both teams are a bit banged up on offense. I’ll take the Broncos with some home field advantage over the Fins this week. I give the Broncos a 70% chance of winning.
  3. New England Patriots – Jonas Gray will not rush for 200 yards this week. In fact, I’d be surprised if he scores as many fantasy points for the remainder of the season as he did last week. That said, the Pats have the variety of weapons to attack almost any defense. The Lions have a great defense, but oddly their offense has been quite pedestrian. I can see the Pats taking to the air to attack the Lions. I give the Patriots a 67% chance of winning.
  4. Chicago Bears – Yuck. And double yuck yet again. The Bears have every single offensive weapon a team could ever want. A dual-threat RB, two tall, athletic WRs and a freak of a TE. However, they can’t ever seem to get all of them moving in the same direction. They face a terrible Bucs team that blasted an even worse Washington squad last week. The Bears should be able to overcome a one-dimensional Bucs’ offense. I give the Bears a 64% chance of winning.

Other teams I like this week: None

As for the avoid list, I would stay away from the Buffalo Bills at home (on the road) against the New York Jets. It has been quite a week in Buffalo and I want no part of a team that has had its normal routine interrupted as extensively as Buffalo has.

If you get bonus points for picking an underdog, I’d think about the Cleveland Browns against the Atlanta Falcons. Yes, Falcons are at home, but it’s Josh Gordon week for Cleveland. I could see the Browns airing it out early and then salting the game away on the ground. A risky pick, but this last in the season you need to take risks.

If you ever want to see what Vegas thinks each team’s “chances of winning” are, use this handy little converter to transform money lines into win percentages. You can also create a spreadsheet if you’d like (or use this one – scroll to the bottom) to do it for fun at home. This percentage chance to win is another quick way to gauge win expectations for each team each week. You can get a variety of money lines here or here.

If you have any questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter at @chrisgarosi

Fantasy Football: Week 12 Survivor Pool Picks

Survivor – Week 12

The Week 12 Survivor pool picks are here. Unfortunately, week 11 saw the Texans go down and take more entrants with them. As I noted last week, if you are down to two or three players it may be time to talk to the others about chopping or sharing or guaranteeing something for all players left in the pool. For those in larger pools, it’s time to look at the picks for your Week 12 NFL Survivor Pool.

Week 11 recap

The Texans took out another sizable (on a percentage basis) portion of the remaining squads. The only other top 10 squads to lose were the Detroit Lions and New York Jets. The Jags got back to their losing ways and allowed the Cardinals to take them out at home. There were some blowouts, including the Bills and Bucs, where we didn’t expect them.

Bye week: Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks

Survivor Pool – Week 12 selections

Here is what we have for a top 12 from Office Football Pool and Yahoo! as of midday Wednesday:

Office Football Pool

Yahoo! Survival Football

Rank

Team

Picks

Rank

Team

Picks

1

Detroit Lions

52.40%

1

Detroit Lions

55.26%

2

New Orleans Saints

16.80%

2

New Orleans Saints

22.04%

3

Houston Texans

15.10%

3

Houston Texans

7.98%

4

Kansas City Chiefs

4.90%

4

Kansas City Chiefs

5.87%

5

Carolina Panthers

3.20%

5

Carolina Panthers

2.98%

6

Baltimore Ravens

3.00%

6

San Francisco 49ers

1.96%

7

San Francisco 49ers

1.60%

7

Baltimore Ravens

1.10%

8

Green Bay Packers

0.60%

8

Green Bay Packers

0.68%

9

Pittsburgh Steelers

0.40%

9

Pittsburgh Steelers

0.58%

10

Oakland Raiders

0.40%

10

Chicago Bears

0.35%

 

The Detroit Lions lead the way, but if you have any of the other squads, does it make sense to take them? Are the Lions the best bet to advance your entry to Week 13? Let’s take a look. Here are my choices for Week 12 in order of preference:

  1. New Orleans Saints – If I get the chance to use a top team this late in the season, I’m going to take it. The Saints look like a solid equity play with so many teams on the Lions. The Saints offense is firing on all cylinders even with the nagging injuries to Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles. Marques Colston appeared from his slumber over the last couple of weeks and looks poised for a great late season run. The Falcons have a solid offense, but don’t seem to have anyone capable of playing defense.  The nice thing about taking the Saints is that it’s Thursday night game so some people may avoid the game for that reason or forget to set their entry prior to Sunday’s games. I give the Saints a 78% chance of winning.
  2. Houston Texans – Yes, I know, they broke many people’s hearts last week. However, they are playing the historically awful Jacksonville Jaguars at home. They have enough offensive weapons to bury the Jags as long as Case Keenum can keep his head. The Jags are, well, you know the Jags. They are terrible. They are old. They have no prospects. I give the Texans a 75% chance of winning.
  3. Detroit Lions – At this point, this is purely an equity call to drop the Lions to third. The Lions are at home against a “hot” Tampa Bay Buccaneers team. However, it is unlikely that the Bucs really are that good.   The Bucs do have Darrelle Revis who will do his best to shut down Calvin Johnson so there is a risk that the Lions will need to rely on others to overcome the Bucs. The Bucs offense has some play makers in Vincent Jackson and Bobby Rainey. Mike Glennon has been a bit more than a caretaker and that’s more than the Bucs could have hoped for this season. That said the Lions are at home and should be able to waltz away from the Bucs. I give the Lions a 78% chance of winning.
  4. San Francisco 49ers – The Niners are a one trick pony on offense, but they are integrating Aldon Smith back into the defensive lineup so they are close to full strength. And it’s unlikely they need much on offense as the Washington defnse and special teams are so horrific that they opportunities should be myriad for the 49ers to score often. Yes, the Washington offense is good, but they can’t overcome all of the gifts given out by the defense and special teams. I give the 49ers a 69% chance of winning.
  5. Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs looked pretty good in their loss to Denver last week. They get a Chargers team at home that could not take care of a decimated Miami Dolphins team last week. The Chiefs defense is legitimate and should be able to have their way with the Chargers. The Chiefs offense doesn’t bring much to the table, but Dwayne Bowe looked revitalized last week and could be a difference maker down the stretch for the Chiefs. I give the Chiefs a 68% chance of winning.

If you have the Saints, take them. There is no sense in saving teams at this point. You are down to the last few weeks in the season and most pools will be done in the next couple of weeks.

Other teams I like early this week: Baltimore Ravens (65% chance of winning) – they are a much different team at home versus on the road. And we had a Ray Rice sighting last week so that can only be positive.  Carolina Panthers (65%) – they are a top five team in the NFL and head on the road to a listless Miami Dolphins team.

As for the avoid list, I would stay away from the Green Bay Packers. They should be a much better team when Aaron Rodgers returns and they do head on the road to face a poor team, but one that still has Adrian Peterson.

If you get bonus points for picking an underdog, I’d think about the New England Patriots at home against the Denver Broncos. The line is larger than I’d expect as I see this as a pure coin flip and the Pats should have a slight advantage at home.

Just a reminder, if you ever wanted to see what Vegas thinks each team’s “chances of winning” are, use this handy little converter to transform money lines into win percentages. You can also create a spreadsheet if you’d like (or use this one – scroll to the bottom) to do it for fun at home. This percentage chance to win is another quick way to gauge win expectations for each team each week. You can get a variety of money lines here or here

Chris Garosi is a contributor for District Sports Page. One of his favorite sports memories is witnessing Wilson Alvarez’s no-hitter at Memorial Stadium in 1991. Chris has played fantasy sports since the pre-Internet days and participates in any league for any sport to which he’s invited. He even won an XFL fantasy league. Really. You can follow him on Twitter at @chrisgarosi.

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