September 21, 2019

Fantasy Football: Week 13 NFL Survivor Pool Picks

Survivor

Welcome back to DSP’s NFL Survivor Pool picks column for Week 13. As promised I skipped the Thursday games again though this week you could have probably been on Detroit with little issue. If you still need to make some decisions, my thoughts for the week are below. As I noted, last week there is just too much volatility in the Thursday night games this late in the season.

Bye Week: None – bye weeks are complete

Survivor Pool – Week 13 selections

Here is what we have for a top 10 from Office Football Pool and Yahoo! as of late Saturday night:

Survivor_Week_13

Middle America is well represented here. Should we stay in the heartland or go elsewhere for our choice this week?

As always, a friendly reminder, I never (almost never) save a team for later in the season. There is too much volatility (especially when it comes to injuries) in the NFL and the best information you have is for the upcoming week. Trying to predict performance in future weeks is nearly impossible.

Here are my choices for Week 13 in order of preference:

  1. St. Louis Rams – I actually like the Rams the best of all the teams this week. I know it seems odd to choose them over the number two team on the list. However, the Rams defense has been terrifying the last few weeks (and they get Chris Long back on the defensive line), their offense is stable if unspectacular and the Raiders will be without their best offensive player in Latavius Murray. I give the Rams an 85% chance of winning.
  2. Indianapolis Colts – Oddly, I’d like the Colts the best if Washington still had Robert Griffin III at QB. Yes, I believe that Colt McCoy gives them a much better chance to win. The Jim Haslett “coached” defense has shown up from time to time for Washington and could cause issues for the Colts’ front seven. That said, I think Andrew Luck will have enough time do damage. I give the Colts a 79% chance of winning.
  3. Pittsburgh Steelers – The Saints haven’t been able to win at home (where they always win) and now they head to Pittsburgh and face a defense that is getting healthy at just the right time. Moreover, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers’ offense has been untouchable at home with Big Ben’s 18:1 TD to interception ratio at home leading the way. I give the Steelers a 75% chance of winning.
  4. Baltimore Ravens – Yes, the San Diego Chargers are a solid team. However, they seem to struggle more than most teams do when coming to the east coast from the west. The Ravens run defense should be able to turn the Chargers into a one-dimensional throwing show and they should be able to pressure Phillip Rivers into enough mistakes to lead to a Baltimore victory. I give the Ravens a 72% chance of winning.
  5. Houston Texans – The Texans are going back to Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB and I do not like that one bit. However, the hope here is that the Texans ride the now-healthy Arian Foster and let Fitzpatrick throw no more than 20 passes against the Titans. The Titans have looked a bit better lately with Zach Mettenberger maturing well. I give the Texans a 71% chance of winning.
  6. Miami DolphinsThe Dolphins go on the road on Monday night to face a Jets team that now has Geno Smith leading the parade. Rex Ryan is a lame duck coach and even with the Dolphins playing waiver wire defensive backs, they won’t be able to take advantage of this huge mismatch. The Jets will be without Muhammad Wilkerson and I think the Dolphins could roll. I give the Dolphins a 71% chance of winning.
  7. New York Giants With Rashad Jennings finally healthy, I like the balance on offense that the Giants bring to the table. They face perhaps the poorest team in the league in the Jaguars. I don’t necessarily like taking a team on the road, but the Jags are pretty awful and the Giants should be able to hold rookie Blake Bortles down. I give the Giants a 69% chance of winning.

Other teams I like this week: None

As for the avoid list, I would stay away from the Cincinnati Bengals on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Call it a hunch, but I just don’t trust this Bengals team. The Bucs have enough on offense to stay with the Bengals and a solid enough defense to keep Andy Dalton in check.

If you get bonus points for picking an underdog, I’d think about the New England Patriots on the road against the Green Bay Packers. These are two teams that are evenly matched and Bill Belichick can find the tiniest hole in an opponent and exploit it.

If you ever want to see what Vegas thinks each team’s “chances of winning” are, use this handy little converter to transform money lines into win percentages. You can also create a spreadsheet if you’d like (or use this one – scroll to the bottom) to do it for fun at home. This percentage chance to win is another quick way to gauge win expectations for each team each week. You can get a variety of money lines here or here.

If you have any questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter at @chrisgarosi

Fantasy Football: Week 13 NFL Survivor Pool Picks

Survivor

The Week 13 Survivor pool picks (or suicide pool picks if you prefer) are here. Week 12 saw more carnage than normal this late in the season. In my two largest pools, we are down to less than 1% of the total entrants who started back in Week 1.  And in one pool, we now move to two picks per week which offers an even greater challenge. Where should you put your money for Week 13 Survivor poll picks?

Week 12 recap

The Texans took a lot more entries out for the second week in a row. However, the biggest loser was the Detroit Lions who took out almost half of all remaining entrants in most pools. Finally, the reeling Kansas City Chiefs went back and forth with the Chargers and finally succumbed taking another chunk of players with them.

Bye week: None. We are done for the year with byes.

Survivor Pool – Week 13 selections

Here is what we have for a top 10 from Office Football Pool and Yahoo! as of midday Wednesday:

Office Football Pool

Yahoo! Survival Football

Rank

Team

Picks

Rank

Team

Percent

1

Carolina Panthers

27.00%

1

New England Patriots

36.69%

2

New England Patriots

22.90%

2

Carolina Panthers

30.82%

3

Dallas Cowboys

20.80%

3

Dallas Cowboys

16.51%

4

San Francisco 49ers

7.70%

4

Cleveland Browns

3.73%

5

Cleveland Browns

7.20%

5

San Francisco 49ers

3.26%

6

Detroit Lions

6.90%

6

Detroit Lions

2.45%

7

Buffalo Bills

2.80%

7

Buffalo Bills

1.73%

8

Philadelphia Eagles

1.10%

8

Chicago Bears

0.97%

9

Indianapolis Colts

0.70%

9

Indianapolis Colts

0.63%

10

San Diego Chargers

0.40%

10

New York Giants

0.58%

 

I’ll try to go a bit deeper this week as it is getting to crunch time and a lot of the favorites aren’t available. I’m pretty unsure of the slate as a whole at this point which may cause me to ignore any of the Thursday games. We have three pretty even choices so there isn’t an equity pick out there (unless your pool’s population differs greatly). Where should we go for Week 13?

  1. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers are finally getting respect as a top five team in the NFL. They have a superior defense and enough parts on offense to be dangerous. They face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that has turned their fortunes around with Mike Glennon helming the squad. Their victory over the Lions last week was due more to the buffoonery that the Lions seem to bring out every year. The Panthers are not buffoons and match up well with the Bucs on defense. And with Darrelle Revis nursing an injury (even if slight) could give the Panthers too much of an advantage. I give the Panthers a 77% chance of winning.
  2. Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys picked up a big win against conference rivals New York Giants last week as Tony Romo led a fourth quarter drive for the game winning field goal. Romo loves November. In his career, he is 25-6 with a QB rating of 105.7 and a 63 to 18 TD to interception ratio. He’s 6-2 on Thursdays in his career. If the NFL season was played wholly in November, Tony Romo would be the greatest QB of all time. The Raiders are a below average team with a backup QB in Matt McGloin who will get figured out at some point. The Cowboys’ defense is still hurting so the Raiders’ will be best to rely on Rashad Jennings and the newly “healthy” Darren McFadden. The Cowboys will have too much firepower on offense for the Raiders to overcome. I give the Cowboys a 76% chance of winning.
  3. San Francisco 49ers – The Rams looked unbeatable last week against the Bears (and the prior week against the Colts). The main reason last week was a porous Bears’ run defense. This week, they face off against a 49ers defense that will not allow the shenanigans the Bears and Colts allowed.  The Niners hold opponents to 16.7 points per game and runners to 3.9 yards per carry (good for 10th in the league). The Rams won’t be able to rely on Zac Stacy (or Benny Cunningham if Stacy can’t go) and will need to get some plays from Tavon Austin and Kellen Clemens (gulp!). I give the 49ers a 75% chance of winning.
  4. Seattle Seahawks – Yes, the New Orleans Saints are a great team (at home). Yes, the Seattle Seahawks are a great team (at home). The Seahawks are at home this week. The Saints are not. The Saints struggled to pull out the victory over a poor Atlanta Falcons team on the road last week. The Seahawks have some issues in their defensive backfield, but overall they should be able to take care of the Saints relatively easily in the Pacific Northwest. I give the Seahawks a 71% chance of winning the game.
  5. Detroit Lions – The Lions may have more physical talent than almost any team in the NFL currently. However, they are ruined by mental mistake after mental mistake.  The Packers head into the Thanksgiving matchup with Matt Flynn at QB. Flynn looked solid in his comeback against the Vikings last week. However, the Lions are a more balanced team than the Vikes and have a greater breadth of offensive weapons.  The key to the game will be the Lions’ ability to control the Packers running game. The Lions faced the Pack at Lambeau in Week 5 without Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson. Matthew Staffored targeted his TEs 11 times in his 40 attempts and Kris Durham led the team in targets with eight. The Pack was at full strength. Also, Josh Sitton seems to not have good feelings for the Lions’ defense ratcheting up the tension another notch. I give the Lions a 69% chance to win.
  6. New England Patriots – If you don’t want to touch the Thursday games, I might move the Pats up above the Lions if I was pushed. However, the Patriots have been questionable on the road for most of this season. Yes, the Texans have lost back to back games which they were favored to win (big!), but the Pats are coming off an emotional win against the Broncos. I give the Pats a 67% chance of winning.
  7. Cleveland Browns – The battle of Brandon Weeden versus Chad Henne. Ugh. The Jags have been hot of late and the Browns are coming off of a drubbing at the hand of the Pittsburgh Steelers. That said, the Browns still have a solid defense that has the players to shut down an offense like the Jags. I give the Browns a 65% chance of winning.
  8. Denver Broncos – The Broncos are smarting after folding against the New England Patriots on national TV last week. The Chiefs are likely to be without Tamba Hali and Justin Houston – two of their best pass rushers. Their defense has struggled over the last few weeks even with those two in the lineups. Peyton Manning should be able to carve up a weakened Chiefs D even if Knowshon Moreno misses the game. I give the Broncos a 64% chance of winning.
  9. Buffalo Bills – The Falcons hung close with the New Orleans Saints on Thursday night last week.  However, they haven’t looked good for a while. They travel to Tornonto to take on a Bills team that is getting back all of its offensive weapons this week and I like E.J Manuel’s chances to succeed against a poor Falcons’ defense. I give the Bills a 62% chance of winning.

Ok, that’s nine teams for you. If you have any of the first four teams left, take them this week. Again, there is no sense in saving teams at this point. You are down to the last few weeks in the season and most pools will be done in the next couple of weeks.

Other teams I like early this week: None, though I might be encouraged to consider the Bengals on the road against a Chargers team with Ryan Matthews and Antonio Gates at less than 100%.

As for the avoid list, I would stay away from the Indianapolis Colts. I’m not sure what to make of them at this point. Since the bye week, they have been blown out twice and eked out two three point victories. They face a Titans team that has been up and down as well. The Colts should be able to handle the Titans, but with all the injuries on the defensive side of the ball, I’d stay away.

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!

If you get bonus points for picking an underdog, I’d think about the New England Patriots at home against the Denver Broncos. The line is larger than I’d expect as I see this as a pure coin flip and the Pats should have a slight advantage at home.

Just a reminder, if you ever wanted to see what Vegas thinks each team’s “chances of winning” are, use this handy little converter to transform money lines into win percentages. You can also create a spreadsheet if you’d like (or use this one – scroll to the bottom) to do it for fun at home. This percentage chance to win is another quick way to gauge win expectations for each team each week. You can get a variety of money lines here or here

Chris Garosi is a contributor for District Sports Page. One of his favorite sports memories is witnessing Wilson Alvarez’s no-hitter at Memorial Stadium in 1991. Chris has played fantasy sports since the pre-Internet days and participates in any league for any sport to which he’s invited. He even won an XFL fantasy league. Really. You can follow him on Twitter at @chrisgarosi.

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