September 15, 2019

Fantasy Football: Week 17 NFL Survivor Pool Picks

Survivor

Welcome back to DSP’s NFL Survivor Pool picks column for Week 17. Perhaps the toughest of all weeks (outside of Week 1) faces us this week. All of the games are on Sunday (no Thursday, Saturday or Monday games).

For many of you, this is the final week no matter what happens. For others, the pool may run into the playoffs. Either way, good luck!

You can check out what each team in the playoffs (or fighting for a spot) needs this week here.

Thanks for reading all year and I’ll be back next season with all of your Survivor needs.

Bye Week: None – bye weeks are complete

Survivor Pool – Week 17 selections

Here is what we have for a top 10 from Office Football Pool and Yahoo! as of mid-Friday afternoon:

Survivor_Week_17

We are down to the dregs if we have the Texans leading the way even against the Jags. At this point in the season, it’s about (a) who you have left and (b) who your opponents have left. I will list all teams I’d like this week so you may need to scroll down to find teams who area available to you.

As always, a friendly reminder, I never (almost never) save a team for later in the season. There is too much volatility (especially when it comes to injuries) in the NFL and the best information you have is for the upcoming week. Trying to predict performance in future weeks is nearly impossible.

Here are my choices for Week 17 in order of preference:

  1. Denver Broncos – The Broncos are tuning up for the playoffs, but still need to win to get a first round bye and I think they’ll be playing for it. The Raiders are waiting for the end of the season. It can’t come soon enough for them. I give the Broncos a 90% chance of winning.
  2. Baltimore Ravens – Yes, the Ravens looked terrible last week and they come into this week with a banged up backfield. However, they get the Christmas gift of Connor Shaw at QB for the Browns. I think the Ravens will actually be able to throw on the Browns as Joe Haden will not be 100% even if he does play. I give the Ravens an 85% chance of winning.
  3. Seattle Seahawks – Man, this is the team we expected to see isn’t it? They have their efficient offense clicking lead by Marshawn Lynch. And their defense has gone from mediocre to menacing. The Rams have an equally effective defense, but don’t have the offensive weapons to make a dent in the ‘hawks chances. I give the Seahawks an 84% chance of winning.
  4. Indianapolis Colts – The Colts have nothing to play for. The Titans play like they have nothing to play for. I’ll take a more talented Colts’ squad that Coach Chuck Pagano said “need to build some steam” after getting blasted by Dallas last week. And Andrew Luck took some time off last week during the loss. I give the Colts an 80% chance of winning.
  5. Houston Texans – Arian Foster should be enough for the Texans to take down the Jags. The Jags have looked spry lately (as they did at the end of last season), but they don’t frighten me. I give the Texans a 79% chance of winning.
  6. New England PatriotsI’m a little dubious of what Bill Belichick will do this week with the Pats. However, even with a second rate staff, I think the Pats shouldn’t have an issue with a withering Bills’ squad. I give the Patriots 79% chance of winning.
  7. Miami Dolphins Geno Smith is starting at QB for the Jets. I’m not sure there is much more I have to say. The Dolphins should be able to score enough to keep the Jets in the loss column this week. I give the Dolphins a 75% chance of winning.
  8. Minnesota Vikings The Vikes defense has been pretty good this year when it faces poorer teams (like the Bears). The Bears have been forced to go back to Jay Cutler at QB. The Vikes have ridden Matt Asiata lately and I assume they will continue to do so while throwing frequently to Charles Johnson and Greg Jennings against a depleted Bears’ secondary. I give the Vikings a 73% chance of winning.
  9. Dallas Cowboys Much like the Pats, I’m not sure what Dallas will do. They can improve their stock in the playoffs, but need some help from some friends. And they do have the revenge factor against Washington in their favor. Robert Griffin III is nursing a sprained shoulder, but will play. I give Dallas a 72% chance of winning.
  10. Green Bay Packers The Packers are a bit dinged up on offense, but they face the Lions one of the most overrated teams in the league. The Lions have a ton to play for, but will likely come up short on the road at Lambeau. I give the Packers a 70% chance of winning.

I will skip the rest of the normal column where I pick underdogs, teams to avoid and other teams I like and just list the remainder of the teams that I think will win this week.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers (home against Cincinnati)– 65% chance of winning
  2. New Orleans Saints (at Tampa Bay) – 63% chance of winning
  3. New York Giants (at home against Philadelphia) – 55% chance of winning
  4. Atlanta Falcons (at home against Carolina – 55% chance of winning
  5. San Diego Chargers (on the road against Kansas City) – 51% chance of winning
  6. Arizona Cardinals (on the road against San Francisco) – 51% chance of winning

If you ever want to see what Vegas thinks each team’s “chances of winning” are, use this handy little converter to transform money lines into win percentages. You can also create a spreadsheet if you’d like (or use this one – scroll to the bottom) to do it for fun at home. This percentage chance to win is another quick way to gauge win expectations for each team each week. You can get a variety of money lines here or here.

If you have any questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter at @chrisgarosi

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