September 21, 2014

Week 13: Survivor Pool Best Bets

This week has been a hellish one at work and as result you’ve seen very little from me for Week 13. I won’t have the usual start/sit portion of my Sunday column either. We’ll focus only on Survivor here and should be back on our regular schedule next week.

And for those in the Washington DC Metro area, perhaps you’ll see my hard work change the way you travel down the road for the next few decades. If it doesn’t kill me first.

Check in with Rotoworld’s rankings as a quick guide for this week. If you have questions, just leave a comment or send me a note on Twitter.

Survivor

It is Week 13 – If you are still around, congratulations. Most pools haven’t lost a lot of members the last couple of weeks, but you are likely still down to less than 10% of those who started. That is an accomplishment unto itself. However, there are no prizes for participation. The goal is to win.

Where can we go this week to survive and advance?

Bye week: None

Survivor Pool – Week 13 selections

Here is what we have for a top 10 from Office Football Pool and Yahoo! as of early Sunday morning:

Office Football Pool

Yahoo! Survival Football

Team

Picks

Team

Picks

1 Dallas Cowboys 21.70%

1

San Francisco 49ers

23.77%

2 Buffalo Bills 15.60%

2

Buffalo Bills

19.85%

3 Baltimore Ravens 11.00%

3

Dallas Cowboys

13.50%

4 San Francisco 49ers 10.90%

4

New England Patriots

10.82%

5 New England Patriots 7.80%

5

Chicago Bears

6.34%

6 New York Jets 7.60%

6

Baltimore Ravens

5.64%

7 Denver Broncos 6.60%

7

Green Bay Packers

3.95%

8 Green Bay Packers 4.80%

8

Carolina

3.80%

9 Chicago Bears 4.80%

9

Denver Broncos

3.66%

10 Detroit Lions 3.90%

10

New York Jets

2.75%

 

Who do you have left at this point? If you have a stud team left that few or no other players have left, then use them this week. No sense in saving them. I’ll try to go as deep as I can in my recommendations to ensure we cover all bases.

Here we go for this week:

  1. Green Bay Packers – I doubt many (if any of you) have the left. The Packers offense is clicking on all cylinders and they face a Vikings team that will likely be one dimensional again without Percy Harvin. The Packers are due to get Greg Jennings back which can only help. I give the Packers an 85% chance of winning.
  2. Baltimore Ravens – Yes, the Ravens barely scraped by the Steelers two weeks ago. Yes, this is a divisional game pitting two hated rivals against each other. I have only two words for you – Charlie Batch. I’m sure he’s a nice guy, but he can’t QB an NFL team. I like the Ravens to take this with a chance of winning at 81%.
  3. San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers are a monster team now with Colin Kaepernick leading the offense. The Rams are a solid defensive team, but will likely be stymied by the 49ers stout defense. I give the 49ers a 75% of winning.
  4. Dallas Cowboys – I hate to count on the Cowboys and Jason Garrett for anything (and I’m a Cowboys fan). The Cowboys look to get DeMarco Murray back and should have most of their offensive weapons healthy (save Miles Austin). The Cowboys defense continues to be decimated by injuries. However, I don’t think the Eagles will be able to take advantage of those injuries with Nick Foles at the helm and who knows what at WR. I give the Cowboys a 74% chance of winning
  5. Detroit Lions – The Lions are 4-7; the Colts are 7-4. However, the Colts are a different team on the road. Andrew Luck is still coming into his own and doesn’t yet have a defense to help him along. I give the Lions a 65% chance of winning.
  6. New York Jets – The Jets are playing a Cardinals team that came east early in the season and knocked a lot of players out by beating the New England Patriots.  The Jets defense is superior to the Patriots and the Cardinals now have Ryan Seacrest (or someone named Ryan) at QB. The Jets have a 65% chance of winning.
  7. Chicago Bears – The Bears defense wins this game for them. The Seahawks are a different team on the road. It looks like Matt Forte will play and Jay Cutler is back under center. I give the Bears a 64% chance of winning.
  8. New England Patriots – Something about this Patriots game worries me so I’ve moved them down significantly. The Dolphins always seem to play them well and the Patriots have a defensive team like the Cowboys, but are at least coached well. I give the Pats a 63% chance of winning.
  9. Denver Broncos – The Broncos looked good last week and should be fine on the road in Tampa. However, it’s never a 100% certainty that the good Knowshon Moreno shows up. I give the Broncos a 61% chance to win.
  10. Buffalo Bills – The Bills defense scares me as the Jags have really turned it on offensively. If this turns into a shootout, I could see the Jags taking it. Also, Greg Jones (the Jags FB) is back which should help even a terrible RB like Rashad Jennings. I give the Bills a 59% chance of winning.

Other teams I like: None

As for the avoid list, I would stay away from the Carolina Panthers on the road against Kansas City.  Even prior to the tragedy in Kansas City yesterday, I didn’t feel the Panthers had a enough to go on the road and win. Now, the game is completely unpredictable and I’d stay away. Everyone’s thoughts are with the victim’s family and friends.

Just a reminder, if you ever wanted to see what Vegas thinks each team’s “chances of winning” are, use this handy little converter to transform money lines into win percentages. You can also create a spreadsheet if you’d like (or use this one – scroll to the bottom) to do it for fun at home. This percentage chance to win is another quick way to gauge win expectations for each team each week. You can get a variety of money lines here or here.

Chris Garosi is a contributor for District Sports Page. One of his favorite sports memories is witnessing Wilson Alvarez’s no-hitter at Memorial Stadium in 1991. Chris has played fantasy sports since the pre-Internet days and participates in any league for any sport to which he’s invited. He even won an XFL fantasy league. Really. You can follow him on Twitter at @chrisgarosi.

About Chris Garosi

Chris Garosi is a Contributor to District Sports Page. Chris is a diehard Maryland Terrapins fan in all sports and a fan of things New England sports-related (except for football). Chris has played fantasy sports since the pre-Internet days and participates in any league for any sport to which he’s invited. He also writes for The Fantasy Fix. You can follow Chris on Twitter at @chrisgarosi.

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