May 17, 2012

Zimmerman extension will get done when it gets done

The big news out of Viera yesterday was that Ryan Zimmerman and Mike Rizzo (and therefore, Tom Boswell also) both talked about the Washington Nationals’ All-Star, Gold Glove and Silver Slugger’s possible contract extension.  It may bring some comfort to a segment of the fan base that needs something to worry about, but it’s really all just window dressing, drama where there doesn’t need to be any.

Zimmerman’s extension will happen because both parties have too much invested in each other to not get it done.  And frankly, just because the player (or more likely, his agent) set an artificial deadline of the end of spring training to get something done, or quash talks until the end of the season, doesn’t mean much more than the pixels that have been written about it.

The Nationals want to — and know they need to – re-sign Zimmerman.  First, he’s a very important baseball player.  His combination of hitting and fielding make him one of the National League’s most valuable players.  Second, he’s been the face of the franchise since the very beginning.  Third, how they treat Zimmerman will have long-lasting impact on how the rest of the home-grown talent (as well as free agents) views the organization when their contracts come up for renewal.

For the Nats, there is really no better time than now to get a deal done.  Zimmerman is coming off two injury-plagued years, so his value is suppressed a little bit.  But the injuries have been acute in nature, not chronic problems.  This is the problem the Mets had with the decision to not re-sign Jose Reyes.  His hamstring problems are chronic, reoccurring.  There’s no reason to think that Zimmerman’s “injury prone,” he’s just been unlucky so far in his career with three unrelated injuries.

But those injuries will play into the value of his next contract, his “career” contract.  The Nats can get Zimmerman at something of a discount because both parties know his stats have been suppressed by the injuries.  If the Nats allow him to play the next two seasons in full health though, it’s entirely possible Zim’s price tag will skyrocket.  Zimmerman is entering his age-27 season, widely considered the beginning of his prime years.  If he stays healthy and puts together two All-Star, best-of-his-career seasons, it’s also possible he prices himself out of D.C.

It’s a dicey proposition for the agent if he guides Zimmerman to take his chances on playing out his contract, though.  In baseball, you never know when the last day will come.  Zimmerman knows this as well, as he indicated in his comments to Boswell.

“It might even be good that I’m coming off an injury year. It makes the price lower and a deal easier, you’d think. Whatever happens, it’s more than I can ever spend. So I don’t want to be greedy. You want to be happy. I saw what happened to Adam Dunn last year. You never know the impact when you change teams.”

Lastly, Jayson Werth’s albatross contract shouldn’t have any impact on the Zimmerman negotiations financially, unless it’s beginning to erode the Lerner family’s trust in GM Mike Rizzo’s judgment, and there’s been no public indication that is the case.  Contrary, Rizzo was the public voice of the Nationals all winter long, with the ownership family quietly in the background.

The Lerner’s still controll the purse strings, but you have to believe that if Rizzo advocates for something, they will provide the resources.  I remain convinced the Nats ultimately tepid pursuit of Prince Fielder was a Rizzo baseball decision, not a Lerner family budgetary one.

Nats fans, there are still plenty of on-field issues to be worried about if you are that sort.  Worry about the team’s general on-base deficiencies and wonder where the runs are going to come from.  Worry about Adam LaRoche’s surgically repaired left shoulder.  Worry about who might up being the right-handed hitting back-up outfielder.  Worry about Gio Gonzalez’ walk rates.  Worry about if this is the year Tyler Clippard’s arm finally falls off.

But don’t worry about Zim’s contract.  It’ll get done when it gets done.

Or not.

Comments

  1. souldrummer says:

    Solid article. When the prophet of doom is optimistic, there’s reason for cheer.